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Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance

(세대 간 미래예측: 거버넌스에서 장기적 책임을 위한 접근법)

목차

Foreword 4

Executive summary 5


Introduction 6

From specialist practice to institutional capability 7

The Future50 initiative 7

Purpose and scope of this handbook 7


1. Defining intergenerational foresight 8


2. Core principles of intergenerational foresight 9

2.1 Future50 as proof of concept 9


3. From principles to practice: regional provocations 10

3.1 Provocations as strategic inquiry 10

3.2 Shaping the contributions 10


A. Europe and Eurasia 11

Regional context: pressure on legitimacy and long-term agency 12

System dynamics: how future agency is quietly eroded 12

Rationale: reclaiming temporal sovereignty 12

Illustrative pathways 13

Global relevance 13


B. Middle East and North Africa 15

Regional context: growth with persistent asymmetries 16

System dynamics: when growth reinforces inequality 17

Rationale: realigning visibility, legitimacy and contribution 18

Illustrative pathways 18

Global relevance 19


C. North America and the Caribbean 20

Regional context: rapid innovation and deepening vulnerability 21

System dynamics: crisis response that reproduces fragility 21

Illustrative case: Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica 22

Rationale: bailouts as foresight leverage points 23

Illustrative pathways 23

Global relevance 24


D. Latin America 26

Regional context: extractive growth and rural marginalization 27

System dynamics: when development undermines trust 27

Rationale: redefining prosperity through intergenerational compacts 28

Illustrative pathways 29

Global relevance 29


E. East Asia 30

Regional context: demography as design constraint and opportunity 31

System dynamics: ageing, capability and organizational resilience 31

Rationale: ageing as a source of intergenerational capability 32

Illustrative pathways 32

Global relevance 33


F. Sub-Saharan Africa 34

Regional context: legitimacy and participation in resource governance 35

System dynamics: governance structures and power distribution 35

Rationale: aligning authority with accountability 36

Illustrative pathways 36

Global relevance 37


G. Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and Oceania 38

Regional context: the limits of technical authority 39

System dynamics: governance coherence under pressure 39

Rationale: expanding the foundations of credible leadership 40

Illustrative pathways 41

Global relevance 42


H. South Asia 43

Regional context: continuity and authority in crisis governance 44

System dynamics: governance design and capacity transfer 44

Rationale: continuity as a design requirement 45

Illustrative pathways 45

Global relevance 45


Conclusion 46

Contributors 47

Acknowledgements 49

Endnotes 51

해시태그

#세대간책임제도화 #장기정책설계 #미래예측접근법 #정책지속가능성 #세대형평성

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Intergenerational Foresight: An Approach for Long-Term Responsibility in Governance

(세대 간 미래예측: 거버넌스에서 장기적 책임을 위한 접근법)

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