LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 7

LIST OF BOXES 9

LIST OF FIGURES 9

LIST OF TABLES 9

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 10

1. INTRODUCTION 15

1.1. Understanding of the objectives of the study 15

1.2. Definitions 18

1.3. Role of the EU budget in natural disaster risk management 19

1.4. Overview of the proposed funding landscape for natural disasters in the 2028-2034 package 21

1.4.1 Ex ante interventions: prevention and preparedness 22

1.4.1. Ex-post interventions: response and recovery 23

1.4.2 Horizontal issues 24

1.5. Opinions of the European Court of Auditors on the MFF proposals 25

1.6. Approach and methodology 26

2. EX-ANTE INTERVENTIONS: PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS 28

2.1. EU budget support for natural disaster prevention 28

2.1.1. Natural disaster prevention in the current MFF 28

2.1.2. Natural disaster prevention in the next MFF 32

2.1.3. Assessment 35

2.2. EU budget support for natural disaster preparedness 38

2.2.1. Natural disaster preparedness in the current MFF 38

2.2.2. Natural disaster preparedness in the next MFF 40

2.2.3. Assessment 43

3. EX-POST INTERVENTIONS: RESPONSE AND RECOVERY 45

3.1.1. Natural disaster response in the current MFF 46

3.1.2. Natural disaster response in the next MFF 50

3.1.3. Assessment 51

3.2. EU budget support for natural disaster recovery 52

3.2.1. Natural disaster recovery in the current MFF 52

3.2.2. Natural disaster recovery in the next MFF 54

3.2.3. Assessment 58

4. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 61

4.1. Level, adequacy and predictability of resources for natural disaster management in the next MFF 61

4.2. Recommendations on disaster prevention and preparedness 66

Secure sufficient resources for natural disaster prevention in the next MFF 67

Improve the quality of NRPP investments in climate adaptation 68

Extend the application of the DNSH principle to CAP direct payments 69

Operationalise the ‘preparedness by design’ principle 69

Earmark support for programmable UCPM actions 70

4.3. Recommendations for disaster response and recovery 71

4.3.1. Response 71

Establish an EU-level reinsurance mechanism 71

4.3.2. Natural disaster recovery 72

Ensure that post-disaster support contributes to long-term resilience rather than simply restoring pre-disaster conditions 72

4.4. Governance challenges facing the European Parliament 73

4.4.1. Increased flexibility and its implications for parliamentary influence over allocations 73

4.4.2. Persistent limitations in tracking and monitoring EU disaster-related expenditure 74

REFERENCES 75

ANNEX INTERVIEW GUIDE 79