Contents 1

About 3

Key highlights 3

Executive summary: Falling electrotech costs create a new path to reach the billion people left behind by fossils 4

Chapter 1: Introduction 8

Chapter 2 : The New Economics of Energy 11

Supply: solar is now the less capital-intensive option 11

Connections: batteries beat the last mile 14

Demand: electrification becomes affordable 16

New markets open up 17

Chapter 3: The advantages of the electric path 19

Microeconomics: breaking the energy poverty gap 19

Macroeconomics: from fossil import drain to electric abundance 22

Geopolitics: three assets and three competing blocs 24

Chapter 4: The energy choice: Fast-track or detour? 26

Appendix A 28

Methodology 28

Appendix B 29

The Climate Vulnerable Forum 29

Acknowledgement 30