Executive Summary 2

Introduction 3

State of Artificial Intelligence Technology and Related Economic Policy Issues 4

Overview 4

Frontier Capabilities versus Economic Adoption 4

Economic Growth, Productivity, Bottlenecks, and Debt Dynamics 6

Automation and Labor Markets Outcomes 7

International Inequality, Divergence, and Market Power 9

Society, Governance, and Policy Architecture 11

Main Takeaways 12

Scenario-Based Assessment of Artificial Intelligence’s Macroeconomic and Policy Implications 12

Overview 12

Macroeconomic Impacts under Current Policies 13

Policy Implications 15

Main Takeaways 18

Conclusions and Policy Implications 20

References 22

Appendix 1. Speakers and Presentations on Day 1 of the Workshop 24

Appendix 2. Methodology and Assumptions for the Scenario Planning Exercise 25

Appendix 3. Participants for the Scenario Planning Exercise (Day 2) 27