Executive Summary 1

Introduction 3

What is Coercive Extractivism? 4

Capricious and personalised decision-making 7

Tariffs are key 8

Everything is on the table, all the time 9

Linkage equals tensions 10

Transactionalism is the foreign policy 11

A deals-based order emerges (but is self-defeating) 12

Coercive extractivism has its limits 14

An extractivist US presidency is to be preferred over an ideological one 15

How Europe can deal with US transactionalism 16

Concluding: four possible paths 20