1 Introduction 1

2 The evolution of the EU external position, 2000-2025 3

2.1 The current account 3

2.2 The EU net international investment position 8

3 Is the EU external surplus too high? 10

3.1 Persistent surpluses as a cause of stability problems 10

3.2 Persistent surpluses as a symptom of problems 13

4 Will the European Union’s external surplus persist? 15

4.1 Sentiment and growth expectations 16

4.2 Fiscal policy 17

4.3 Demographics 19

4.4 Global spillovers 21

5 Conclusion 22

References 25