Electric Vehicles Initiative 9

Executive summary 10

Chapter 1. Trends in electric car markets 16

Electric car sales 16

Model availability and range 32

2026 sales trends 41

Chapter 2. Trends in electric car prices 48

New electric car prices 48

Resale value of used electric cars 59

Government support for electric car sales 63

Chapter 3. Trends in other light-duty electric vehicles 69

Electric two- and three-wheelers 69

Electric light commercial vehicles 73

Chapter 4. Trends in heavy-duty electric vehicles 77

Trends in electric bus sales 77

Trends in electric truck sales 79

Electric heavy-duty model availability 87

Chapter 5. Trends in electric vehicle batteries 92

Electric vehicle battery deployment 92

Battery industry trends 93

Emerging battery chemistry and designs 100

Chapter 6. Trends in electric vehicle charging 104

Light-duty electric vehicle charger deployment 104

Heavy-duty vehicle charger deployment 117

Alternative charging solutions 122

Chapter 7. Trends in manufacturing and trade 129

Manufacturing and trade of electric cars 129

Manufacturing and trade of electric trucks 139

Battery manufacturing and trade 143

Electric vehicle supply equipment manufacturing 151

Chapter 8. Technology trends 157

Overview 157

Vehicle software and software-defined vehicles 159

Autonomous vehicles 163

Artificial intelligence and EVs 169

Security considerations for connected and autonomous vehicles 171

Ultra-fast charging batteries 173

Vehicle-to-grid technology 176

Chapter 9. EV and battery outlook 190

Scenario overview 190

Vehicle outlook by mode 191

Vehicle outlook by region 195

Carmaker electrification announcements 214

EV battery demand outlook 220

Battery recycling 223

Special focus: Manufacturing and trade outlook for electric cars and batteries 228

Chapter 10. Charging outlook 237

Projecting charging needs 237

Light-duty vehicle charging 237

Heavy-duty vehicle charging 245

Charging investments 248

Chapter 11. Implications of the EV outlook 257

Implications for the energy system 257

Electricity demand 257

Oil displacement 259

Fuel tax revenue implications 260

Emissions impacts 262

Annexes 267

Annex A: Oil displacement from electric vehicles 267

Annex B: Definition of car size segment 270

Annex C: Battery-related assumptions and methodological notes 271

Annex D: Total cost of ownership analysis for trucks 274

Annex E: Costs and financial assumptions for home charging and gasoline refuelling 277

Annex F: Battery swapping station assumptions 282

Annex G: Automaker electrification targets 284

Annex H: Estimating flexibility potentials for V2G 287

Annex I: Glossary 288