Foreword 3

Acknowledgements 4

Abbreviations and acronyms 7

Executive summary 8

1 International efforts to address the steel crisis are intensifying 10

The steel crisis is deepening, but new policy solutions are on the horizon 11

Non-market policies and practices continue to drive global excess capacity and hamper the transition to low-emission steel production 13

Steel subsidisation rates are rising, mainly outside of the OECD area 13

Trade actions are increasing, but so are efforts to undermine and evade them 15

Export restrictions and raw materials pressures compound the threat of excess capacity to the industry’s viability 17

International co-operation offers the prospect of lasting solutions to the crisis 18

References 19

2 Steel market and industry prospects 20

Global steel demand remains fragile in 2026 and beyond 21

Steel prices have diverged worldwide 24

Raw material prices have increased more than steel recently 25

World steel production 26

Financial conditions in the industry 29

World steel trade 29

References 33

3 Global steelmaking capacity reaches new highs 36

Structural excess capacity worsens 37

Recent developments in steelmaking capacity 37

The outlook for steelmaking capacity until 2028 39

Cross-border investment in steelmaking 43

Developments in ironmaking and direct reduced iron 45

References 46

4 Steel subsidies continue to increase, severely distorting markets 48

Growing steel subsidies are eroding market-driven behaviours 49

Monitoring support measures in selected countries and regions 51

References 58

5 Trade actions increase as the steel crisis worsens 63

Recent trade remedy investigations on steel products 64

Other measures affecting the steel trade 64

Trade diversion and the circumvention of trade measures 67

Export restrictions on steelmaking materials 68

References 71