Title page 1

Contents 1

Abstract 2

1. Introduction 3

2. Empirical strategy 6

3. Data 7

4. Results 9

4.1. Robustness: Placebo vulnerability and leave-one-out tests 11

5. Conclusion 12

References 14

Appendix 1. Descriptive statistics 16

Appendix 2. Additional robustness tests 17

Table 1. Sectoral exposure measures across baseline and robustness models 8

Table 2. Main Results: Global Sample 9

Table 3. Main Results: Income Groups 10

Table 4. Placebo test using energy input intensity 11

Table 5. Robustness: leave-one-sector-out 12

Table 6. Descriptive statistics by income group 16

Table 7. Robustness: Global models with PCA 17

Table 8. Robustness: Global models with separate fixed effects 18