Contents

03 Foreword
04 Preface

06 Chapter 1 – Executive summary
07 1.1 Key findings
08 1.2 How we set out to better understand supply chain risk
09 1.3 How can this report be used?

10 Chapter 2 – Introduction
11 2.1 Background
13 2.2 Scope
14 2.3 Approach and methods
21 2.4 Navigating this report

23 Chapter 3 – Understanding supply chain vulnerability and resilience: Evidence and trends
24 3.1 Introduction
24 3.2 What makes supply chains vulnerable, and what makes them resilient?
26 3.3 Critical uncertainties of external supply chain trends
29 3.4 Relationships between climate and geopolitical uncertainties

31 Chapter 4 – Modelling systemic vulnerabilities in global supply chains
32 4.1 Modelling supply network risk
33 4.2 Key insights

39 Chapter 5 – Scenarios for the future of global supply chains
40 5.1 Overview of our scenarios
46 5.2 Our scenarios in detail
46 Scenario A – "Island in the storm"
52 Scenario B – "Green walls and grey skies"
59 Scenario C – "The reactive reset"
66 Scenario D – "Ecosphere"
73 5.3 Wildcards

77 Chapter 6 – Conclusions: from insight to action

81 Acknowledgements

82 Glossary

88 References