1. Executive summary 2

2. Outlook for world trade in 2026 and 2027 4

Trade developments in 2025 and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 4

Macroeconomic drivers 8

3. Trade forecast in depth 10

Merchandise trade 10

Commercial services 13

Trade-related indicators 14

4. Trade in value terms 16

Merchandise trade 16

Commercial services 25

5. Analytical chapter: The share of world trade on most-favoured-nation (MFN) terms 30

6. Appendix tables 35

Appendix Table 1: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade, 2025 35

Appendix Table 2: Leading exporters and importers in world merchandise trade excluding intra-EU trade, 2025 36

Appendix Table 3: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services, 2025 37

Appendix Table 4: Leading exporters and importers of commercial services excluding intra-EU trade, 2025 38

Appendix Table 5: Leading exporters and importers of digitally delivered services, 2025 39

7. Bibliography 40