Table of contents Acknowledgements 3

Executive summary 6

1 The Fondo Piccolo Credito programme: Logic framework and implementation 8

Overview of the intervention 8

Assumptions, inputs, outputs and outcomes: A “theory of change” of the intervention 13

Heterogeneous effects and optimal target group 16

2 The counterfactual evaluation 18

Objectives of the evaluation 18

Data and methods 19

Characteristics of the target group 23

Outcomes: Fondo Piccolo Credito boosts long-term loans and investments 25

Robustness checks 28

3 Policy recommendations 29

Validating programme assumptions 30

Adapting the type of support provided 31

Refining eligibility criteria and targeting 32

Enhancing monitoring and evaluation systems 32

References 34

Notes 36

Annex A. Further results 37