Table of contents

1 Introduction 13

1 1 Aim and research question 13

1 2 Methods and materials 14

1 3 Definitions and delimitations 15

1 4 Reading guide 16

2 The pillars of South Korean security policy 17

2 1 A rabbit, tiger, or shrimp among whales? 17

2 2 Legacies of the Korean War in domestic politics 19

2 2 1 The declaration of martial law in December 2024 22

2 3 The North Korean threat 24

2 3 1 North Korea’s two-state policy 27

2 4 The US–ROK defence alliance 28

2 4 1 The alliance is born 28

2 4 2 The Nixon doctrine and the take-off of the defence industry 29

2 4 3 A more symmetrical relationship 29

2 4 4 Growing distrust and the Korean nuclear weapons debate 30

2 4 5 The alliance’s current status and hot issues under Trump 2 0 31

2 5 New challenges 32

2 5 1 Regional instability and China as a security threat 33

2 5 2 Economic security 34

2 5 3 At a foreign-policy crossroads 35

2 6 Summary 38

3 Defence economics, capabilities, and acquisitions 39

3 1 Military expenditure and economic outlook 39

3 2 The ROK Armed Forces 41

3 2 1 Command structure 42

3 2 2 The three armed services 42

3 2 3 Personnel supply 44

3 2 4 Host-nation support and international missions 44

3 3 Capability development and materiel supply 44

3 3 1 State actors in the procurement process 45

3 3 2 Materiel supply strategy 47

3 3 3 Distribution, trends, and challenges in materiel supply 48

3 3 4 Prioritised areas of force improvement 50

3 4 Challenges to defence sector development 52

3 4 1 Financial challenges 52

3 4 2 Social challenges 52

3 4 3 Technological challenges 53

3 4 4 Security policy challenges 53

3 5 Summary 54

4 Defence industry 55

4 1 An overview of the defence industry 55

4 2 Central commercial actors 57

4 2 1 The ground domain 57

4 2 2 The maritime domain 59

4 2 3 The aerospace domain 59

4 2 4 Sensors and C4I 60

4 3 Political governance and legal frameworks 60

4 3 1 The chaebol system 60

4 3 2 State ownership 62

4 3 3 Political signalling 63

44 4 Summary 6

5 Arms exports 67

5 1 Export volumes and noteworthy sales 68

5 1 1 Materiel categories 69

5 1 2 Delivery times 70

5 1 3 Regional distribution 72

5 2 Legal frameworks related to arms exports 73

5 3 Success factors 74

5 3 1 Growth expectations 75

5 4 Export promotion strategies 77

5 4 1 Tailored offers 78

5 4 2 Cooperation in research and development 79

5 4 3 Innovation 79

5 4 4 Joint marketing 79

5 5 Case study: the Poland deal 80

5 5 1 Success factors 81

5 5 2 Setbacks 82

5 5 3 Opportunities and limitations of the next Big Deal 83

5 6 Summary 83

5 7 Final reflections on South Korea’s competitiveness in arms exports 84

5 7 1 Performance and functionality 84

5 7 2 Order volumes, delivery times, and pricing 85

5 7 3 Market access 86

5 7 4 Business reputation 87

5 7 5 Future prospects 87

6 Conclusion 89

6 1 Implications for European security 90

References 93

Appendices 107

Appendix 1: Domestically produced materiel in the ROKAF’s equipment inventory 107

Appendix 2: prioritised technology areas 108

Appendix 3: licensed defence contractors 109