About This Report iii

Summary v

Figures and Tables xi

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

Background and Motivation 1

Key Assumptions and Limitations 2

Report Outline 4

Chapter 2. Literature Review 5

General Findings: Persistent Gaps in Component-Level Detail and Quantitative Analysis 6

Critical Electric Power Components Required by AI Data Centers 8

Projected Equipment Requirements 9

Supply Chain Vulnerabilities for AI-Critical Electrical Equipment 9

Chapter 3. Inventory of Critical Electric Power Components 11

Approach to Developing Inventory 11

Front-of-the-Meter Systems and Components 14

Behind-the-Meter Systems and Components 16

Bridge Power Systems and Components 17

Benefits of Inventory Development 18

Chapter 4. Supply Chain Vulnerability Estimation 19

Methods for Examining Supply Chain Vulnerability 20

Results and Findings 28

Chapter 5. Assessing Supply Chain Risks for Frontier AI Data Center Expansion Using Case Studies 48

Estimating Consequences for Frontier AI Data Center Expansion 49

Threat Scenarios Affecting Frontier AI Data Center Expansion 51

Supply Chain Impact 56

Impact for Off-Grid Systems 57

Chapter 6. Policy Recommendations 60

Recommendations 60

Appendix A. Literature Review Methodology 70

Seed Literature 70

Key Words for Source Identification 71

Search Protocols 75

Structured Queries for Evidence Extraction 75

Synthesis 76

Appendix B. Inventory of Critical Components 78

Appendix C. Example of Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment Calculation 90

Example Vulnerability Calculation 90

Sensitivity Analysis 92

Appendix D. Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment 93

Abbreviations 100

Glossary 101

References 103

About the Authors 109