Foreword 3

Abbreviations and acronyms 9

Key messages 13

Executive Summary 14

1 Agricultural and food markets: Trends and prospects 16

  1.1 Recent developments and assumptions in agricultural markets 17

  1.2 Agricultural Commodity Prices, Labour Productivity and Production: projected evolution to 2035 24

  1.3 Consumption: Projected evolution for 2026-2035 37

  1.4 Trade: Projected evolution for 2026-2035 41

  References 46

  Notes 47

2 Cereals 48

  2.1 Projection highlights 49

  2.2 Current market trends 49

  2.3 Market projections 50

  2.4 Risks and uncertainties 58

3 Oilseeds and oilseed products 59

  3.1 Projection highlights 60

  3.2 Current market trends 60

  3.3 Market projections 61

  3.4 Risks and uncertainties 67

4 Sugar 69

  4.1 Projection highlights 70

  4.2 Current market trends 70

  4.3 Market projections 71

  4.4 Risks and uncertainties 78

5 Meat 80

  5.1 Projection highlights 81

  5.2 Current market trends 81

  5.3 Market projections 82

  5.4 Risks and uncertainties 91

  References 95

6 Dairy and dairy products 98

  6.1 Projection highlights 99

  6.2 Current market trends 99

  6.3 Market projections 100

  6.4 Risks and uncertainties 106

  References 108

  Notes 108

7 Fish and other aquatic products for human consumption 109

  7.1 Projection highlights 110

  7.2 Current market trends 110

  7.3 Market projections 110

  7.4 Risks and uncertainties 116

  References 118

  Note 118

8 Biofuels 119

  8.1 Projection highlights 120

  8.2 Current market trends 120

  8.3 Market projections 121

  8.4 Risks and uncertainties 127

  Notes 129

9 Cotton 130

  9.1 Projection highlights 131

  9.2 Current market trends 131

  9.3 Market projections 132

  9.4 Risks and uncertainties 139

  References 140

  Notes 140

10 Other products 141

  10.1 Roots and tubers 142

  10.2 Pulses 144

  10.3 Bananas and major tropical fruits 146

  Notes 153

Annex A Glossary 154

Annex B Methodology 159

Note 163