Executive Summary  4

Introduction  6

Section 1: The Kremlin’s Strategic Intent  10

Reconnaissance by Battle  11

Mapping Critical Infrastructure: Nuclear and Dual-use Sites  11

Logistics and Supply Chains  11

Economic Attrition and Psychological Warfare  12

Normalising Airspace Violations  12

Section 2: The Maritime-UAV Nexus  13

Establishing Co-location  16

Incidents Over US and NATO Air Bases  22

AIS Blackouts  24

Section 3: Europe’s Response  27

Political Authority and Escalation Risk  28

The Economics of UAVs and European Air Defence  28

Conclusion  30

Notes  32