Title page 1

Contents 1

Policy context 2

ODA is projected to fall for a third straight year in 2026 3

Sub-Saharan Africa and the least developed countries face the steepest cuts 5

Cuts span every region and income group 7

Health, humanitarian aid, and governance bear the deepest sectoral cuts 8

Multilateral ODA is set to fall again in 2026 11

References 12

Figure 1. ODA projected to drop again in 2026 4

Figure 2. Countries most exposed to the crisis rely on a limited set of providers 5

Figure 3. Total ODA by DAC member countries to sub-Saharan Africa and LDCs is projected to decline again 6

Figure 4. Two-year declines projected for ODA to all income groups, regions and other vulnerable groups 8

Figure 5. Health aid is projected to fall below pre-pandemic levels 9

Figure 6. Health, humanitarian aid, and governance face the steepest declines 10

Figure 7. Multilateral ODA breaks from historical pattern of growth 11

Boxes 2

Box 1. Methods 2

Box 2. Implications of crisis in the Middle East 4