Title page 1

Contents 5

Disclaimers 2

Abstract 3

Foreword 4

Executive summary 7

1. Introduction 9

2. Landscape of cyber incidents 11

2.1. Compositional shift in cyber incidents among supply chain and financial institutions 12

2.2. Security holes and cyber vulnerabilities 13

3. Emerging geopolitical risks and cybersecurity in supply chains 15

3.1. Shifts in motivations and actors 15

3.2. Geopolitical landscape and strategic targeting 17

3.3. Geopolitical risks and cyber incidents 18

3.4. Global cybersecurity and supply chain 19

3.5. Economic security considerations and broader market confidence 20

4. Cyber-attacks and damage analysis 23

4.1. Layered dimensions of damage 23

4.2. Systemic effects and contagion risks 23

4.3. Early warning system, stress testing and modelling techniques 24

4.4. Emerging technology and cyber shock analysis 24

5. Policy implications 27

5.1. Enhancing international co-operation 27

5.2. Private sector engagement and public-private partnerships 27

5.3. Third-party Issues among financial institutions 28

5.4. Strengthening monitoring and evaluation 28

References 29

Annex A. Typology of cyber risks in the financial system and selected examples 37

Annex B. Supply chain vulnerabilities and systemic risks in ASEAN 39

Annex C. Cyber regulatory framework in ASEAN 42

Annex D. Credit risk premium and stress analysis 46

Notes 48

Figure 1. Number of cyber incidents across G7 countries 12

Figure 2. Breakdown of cyber incidents in G7 countries 13

Figure 3. Intersection of three drivers of cyber vulnerabilities 14

Figure 4. Crypto hacking activity by year: Total value stolen and number of incidents (2015-2024) 16

Figure 5. Number of cyber incidents 18

Figure 6. Geopolitical risks and cyber incidents across OECD countries 19

Figure 7. Financial institutions: rising third-party (vendor) exposure in cyber incidents 20

Figure 8. Share of cyber incidents by region 22

Boxes 16

Box 1. Crypto security in a fragmented world 16

Box 2. Geopolitical and systemic risks in ASEAN 21

Box 3. Towards systemic cyber resilience and governance in finance 25

Table A C.1. Cybersecurity regulatory frameworks across ASEAN jurisdictions 45

Figure A B.1. Breakdown of cyber incidents across ASEAN member states 39

Figure A B.2. Cybersecurity survey in ASEAN 40

Figure A D.1. Credit risk premium amplification due to banking cyber risks and during market stress periods among G7 countries 47