Title page 1

Contents 3

Abstract 1

Acronyms 5

Introduction 6

Context 7

Decarbonisation targets 7

The role of labour in achieving decarbonisation targets 8

The scale of skilled labour shortages 10

The role of labour migration 12

Quantifying the marginal decarbonisation contribution of an additional (migrant) worker 14

A thousand tonnes of CO₂: The contribution of the marginal (migrant) worker 16

Why speed matters: 'Additional' vs. 'acceleratory' workers 17

The need for care: Ensuring net emissions reduction 20

A forest per worker: Comparing the marginal worker's contribution to other benchmarks 22

Gas imports reduced, costs avoided: Co-benefits of filling workforce gaps 26

Carbon emissions resulting from migration do not pose a risk 28

Implications for labour migration policy 30

Option 1: Recruit as normal 30

Option 2: Recruit into apprenticeships 31

Option 3: Global Skill Partnerships 32

Option 4: Recruitment with parallel investments 32

Policy conclusions 34

Bibliography 36

Methodology 46

Methodology: Solar panel installation abatement 47

Formulae: 'Additional worker' scenario 47

Formulae: 'Acceleratory worker' scenario 50

Installation rates 52

Decarbonisation contribution 55

Methodology: Heat pump installation abatement 62

Formulae: 'Additional worker' scenario 62

Formulae: 'Acceleratory worker' scenario 64

Installation rates 67

Decarbonisation contribution 67

Approach to grid carbon intensity 70

Calculating the carbon intensity of migration 74

Lifestyle and per capita emissions 74

Travel 75

Approach to comparators 75

Tree-planting 75

Social cost of carbon 76

Bibliography 77

TABLE 1. Modelling factors in solar PV installations 47

TABLE 2. Symbols: 'Additional worker' scenario for solar PV modelling 49

TABLE 3. Symbols: 'Acceleratory worker' scenario for solar PV modelling 52

TABLE 4. Modelling factors in heat pump installations 62

TABLE 5. Symbols: 'Additional worker' scenario for heat pump modelling 64

TABLE 6. Symbols: 'Acceleratory worker' scenario for heat pump modelling 66

TABLE 7. Fuel source use by country 72

TABLE 8. Carbon intensity of energy sources in 'Clean' and 'Fossil' buckets 72

TABLE 9. Projected grid carbon intensity, stated policies and 75 percent achievement 73

TABLE 10. Carbon emissions of air travel between country pairs per passenger-flight 75

FIGURE 1. Visualisation of the production function 9

FIGURE 2. The climate contribution of a marginal electrician 16

FIGURE 3. Emissions reductions through heat pump installation 17

FIGURE 4. Solar PV: Additional vs. acceleratory worker 19

FIGURE 5. Heat pumps: Additional vs. acceleratory worker 19

FIGURE 6. Grid carbon intensity, 2024-2032 20

FIGURE 7. The potential penalty of moving a marginal solar PV installer 21

FIGURE 8. Grid carbon intensity and energy demand per capita, 2023 22

FIGURE 9. Tree-planting needed to match solar PV abatement 23

FIGURE 10. Tree-planting needed to match heat pump abatement 24

FIGURE 11. The monetised value of solar PV abatement 25

FIGURE 12. The monetised value of heat pump CO₂ abatement 25

FIGURE 13. Electricity capacity and generation: A worker's solar PV installations 26

FIGURE 14. Gas saved by a worker's heat pump installations, m³ 27

FIGURE 15. Effort Sharing Regulation payments avoided 28

FIGURE 16. CO₂ abatement of solar PV installation, net migration emissions 29

FIGURE 17. CO₂ abatement by a heat pump installer, net migration emissions 30

FIGURE 18. Fixed-term migration model 31

FIGURE 19. Global Skill Partnership model 32

FIGURE 20. Parallel Investments model 33

Boxes 4

BOX 1. Supporting training for international labour markets 33