List of figures  IX

List of tables  XI

List of abbreviations  XII

1 Introduction  1

1.1 Contextualisation  1

1.2 Aim and methodological approach  2

1.3 Overview of the study  6

2 Mapping of trends, drivers, and uncertainties  7

2.1 Supply side  7

2.1.1 Services  7

2.1.2 Infrastructure  8

2.1.3 Costs and revenues  10

2.1.4 Capacity and traffic management  11

2.2 Demand side  13

2.2.1 Passengers  13

2.2.2 Integration in the multi-modal passenger chain  14

2.2.3 Freight operations  15

2.2.4 Integration in the multi-modal logistic chain  16

2.3 Policy and legislative framework  16

2.3.1 EU rail policy  16

2.3.2 National rail policy  20

2.4 Technology  21

2.4.1 Standard technologies  21

2.4.2 Emerging rail-specific technologies  22

2.4.3 Emerging general-purpose technologies  26

2.4.4 Rolling stock  28

2.5 Funding and financing  29

2.6 Overview of drivers and trends  31

3 Future scenarios and their implications  33

3.1 Background  33

3.1.1 State of the sector and policy objectives  33

3.1.2 Member State status quo  34

3.2 Construction of the scenarios  35

3.3 Scenario I: Decentralised corridor implementation and incremental technology adoption  36

3.3.1 EU target setting and planning of railway infrastructure  36

3.3.2 Decentralised implementation leads to slow realisation of EU roadmaps  37

3.3.3 Decentralised harmonisation of technical standards and management procedures risks holdups  38

3.3.4 Differences in country geographies lead to gaps in decentralised investment in faster rail network connectivity  40

3.3.5 Decentralised funding maintains national legacies of national railways' differences in rail policy objectives  41

3.4 Scenario II: Central network planning and centralised network implementation  42

3.4.1 Centralised infrastructure implementation overcomes the disregard for network benefits  43

3.4.2 Centralised setting of technical and management standards is a necessary condition for harmonisation  43

3.4.3 Centralised funding of railway infrastructure will increase the efficiency of capacity choice and allocation  43

3.4.4 Centralised regulation can balance network economies and contain incumbents' market powers  44

3.5 Scenario III: Decentralised rail policies implement national projects of transformative technology  45

3.6 Scenario IV: Centralised high-speed rail system with most advanced technology  47

3.6.1 Investments need centralisation of funding responsibility  49

3.6.2 Rail policy coordination and governance  50

4 Policy options  52

4.1 Policy option set for European rail policy  52

4.1.1 Option 1: Implementation and system delivery  52

4.1.2 Option 2: European high-speed rail integration  53

4.1.3 Option 3: Digitalisation and operational optimisation  55

4.1.4 Option 4: Demand-led multimodal integration  56

4.1.5 Option 5: European ultra-high-speed rail  56

4.2 Comparison of the policy options  59

4.3 Policy options across future scenarios  61

5 Conclusions  64

5.1 Key insights from the analysis  64

5.2 Implications of the policy options  65

5.3 Future outlook  66

6 Bibliography  68