FOREWORD  v

METHODOLOGY  vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS  viii

ABBREVIATIONS  ix

CORE MESSAGES  x

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY  xi

PART 1

RESILIENCE AND VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS IN THE CONTEXT OF FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL TRADE  1

Summary  1

Key messages  1

Major shocks since 2000  2

Conceptualizing shocks to food and agricultural markets  6

Defining vulnerability and resilience in the context of trade  12

PART 2

GLOBAL TRADE NETWORK – ASSESSING VULNERABILITY TO SHOCKS  19

Summary  19

Key messages  19

The evolution of food trade networks and their role in the context of shocks  20

Assessing resilience and identifying vulnerable countries  29

Openness to trade and international cooperation  33

PART 3

DYNAMIC IMPACTS OF WEATHER SHOCKS ON TRADE – ARE GLOBAL FOOD MARKETS RESILIENT?  37

Summary  37

Key messages  37

Are global food markets resilient?  38

The role of trade policies  46

PART 4

THE IMPACTS OF SHOCKS ON FOOD PRICES  53

Summary  53

Key messages  53

The dynamics of food commodity prices  54

Trade and world food commodity prices  57

Globalization and vulnerability: How are global shocks propagated to domestic food commodity prices?  60

World food commodity price spikes: the impact of non-cooperative trade policies  64

Public stockholding: buffer stocks, food distribution stocks and emergency food reserves  69

NOTES  72