About This Report  iii

Summary  v

Figures and Tables  ix

Chapter 1. Motivation and Setting  1

The Issue  1

Research Approach  1

Space Competition: Definition and Sources  2

Caveats  3

Organization of This Report  5

Chapter 2. Toward a Quantitative Space Competition Forecast: Sectoral and National Indicators of Space Competition  6

National Potential for Space Competitiveness Schema  6

Conclusion  23

Chapter 3. A Quantitative Methodology and Forecast of Future Spacelift  25

Caveats on Forecasting  25

Methodology  26

The Ensemble Short-Term Launch Forecast  30

Long-Term Projections Based on a Modal 2030 Scenario  34

Beyond Launch Cadences: Payload and Booster Characteristics  37

Conclusion  45

Chapter 4. A Machine-Learning–Based Methodology and Linguistic Analysis to Forecast Space Competition  46

Blind Spots in Understanding the PLA's Pursuit of Space Capabilities  46

Parsing Academic Metadata for Greater Insight into PLA Views  49

Conclusion  59

Chapter 5. Conclusion and Recommendations  61

Limitations and Future Directions  62

Recommendations for U.S. Decisionmakers  63

Abbreviations  65

References  66