1 Introduction  3

2 Methodology  4

3 Drivers of EU - Candidate Countries Relations Requiring Policy Priority  7

European Security Environment  7

Bilateral Disputes and Regional Cooperation  9

Public Opinion towards Enlargement  11

4 New Visions for EU Policy towards the Western Balkans and the Association Trio  14

Vision I: Strategically Integrated and Geopolitically Driven Enlargement ('Resilient Union 2035')  14

Accession Architecture and Pace  15

Security Environments and the EU's Geopolitical Role  15

Bilateral Disputes and Conflict Resolution  16

Internal Reforms  16

Democratic Reforms, Rule of Law and State Capture  16

Public Opinion  16

Vision II: Fragmented and Stalled Enlargement ("Stagnating Union 2035")  17

Accession Architecture and Pace  17

Security Environments and the EU's Geopolitical Role  18

Bilateral Disputes and Conflict Resolution  18

Internal Reforms  18

Democratic Reforms, Rule of Law and State Capture  18

Public Trust  19

5 Conclusions and Next Steps  19