INTRODUCTION  P.6

PRESENTATION OF THE URBAN GROWTH PROJECTION MODEL  P.8

STRESS‑TESTING THE DENSITY SCENARIOS: IMPACTS ON URBANISED SURFACE AREA AND DENSITY LEVELS  P.18

THE EFFECT OF URBAN POPULATION SIZE ON AGGLOMERATION DENSITY  P.25

UNDER THE LOW‑DENSITY SCENARIO, THE SPATIAL INTERACTIONS OF URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS – FUSION AND ABSORPTION – ARE EXACERBATED  P.27

PROSPECTS, PROBABILITIES AND THE ROLE OF GOVERNANCE  P.34

NOTES  P.40

REFERENCES  P.41

ANNEX A. URBAN DENSITY IN 2020 AND 2050, BY COUNTRY AND DENSITY SCENARIO  P.46

ANNEX B. THE 30 MOST POPULOUS URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS IN AFRICA  P.48

GLOSSARY  P.52