CONTENTS

Glossary 5

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6

INTRODUCTION 10

A. Macrofinancial Context 10

B. Financial Sector Structure 13

C. Financial Sector Developments 16

SYSTEMIC RISK ASSESSMENT 21

A. Key Systemic Vulnerabilities and Risks 21

B. Scope of the FSAP Analysis 22

C. Scenarios 24

CORPORATE AND HOUSEHOLD ASSESSMENT 29

A. Corporate Analysis 29

C. Household Analysis 31

BANK SOLVENCY STRESS TESTS 35

A. Scope and Approach 35

B. Methodology 36

C. Solvency Results 47

D. Sensitivity Analysis 51

BANK LIQUIDITY RISK ANALYSIS 53

A. Overview and Key Findings 53

B. Structural Analysis 53

C. Cash Flow-Based Stress Tests 55

D. Reverse LCR-based Stress Test 63

E. Liquidity-to-Solvency Interactions 65

INTERCONNECTEDNESS ANALYSIS 67

A. Inter-sector Financial Linkages 67

B. Banks’ Cross-border Linkages 72

C. Large Exposures and Common Exposures Analysis 74

References 108