About This Report iii

Figures and Tables vii

Buying Time Against AI Proliferation: The Economics of Governed Access 1

  Diffusion, Proliferation, and the Access Regime 3

  Conceptual Framework 7

  Findings 13

  Implications and Limitations 18

  Conclusion 19

APPENDIXES

  A. Model Specification 21

  B. Analytical Instrument Hierarchy 29

  C. Parameter Specification and Calibration 39

  D. Robust Decision Making Analysis Design 47

  E. Detailed Results 53

  F. Archetype Parameter Calibration 61

Abbreviations 61

References 63