Executive summary 4

  Two stories, one transition 4

  A deeper shift is underway 5

  The “old” system is beginning to register the shift 6

  Progress is bringing harder challenges, but momentum is firm 9

Chapter 1: Deeper integration 10

  1.1 Generation: renewable build-out is changing the coal story 10

  1.2 System: Clean flexibility gains scale 14

  1.3 Economy: Electrification reaches more demanding uses 17

  1.4 Emerging signs of fossil-fuel peaking 21

Chapter 2: Why the momentum holds 25

  2.1 What the next phase requires 25

  2.2 Adapting the policy toolkit 27

  2.3 The growing-by-greening dynamic 31

Chapter 3: What China’s transition means 36

  3.1 Energy security through reduced import exposure 37

  3.2 Economic growth beyond rising fossil-fuel use 39

  3.3 Global fossil-fuel demand growth is losing its historical engine 42

Supporting materials 44

  Methodology 44