Executive summary i

Tables vi

Figures vi

Boxes vi

Abbreviations vii

Acknowledgements ix

Chapter 1. Introduction 1

  1.1. Inadvertent escalation risks in Europe and the Euro-Atlantic 1

  1.2. Project objectives 5

  1.3. Methodology 6

  1.4. Structure of this report 6

Chapter 2. The risks of inadvertent escalation across contexts 8

  2.1. Conceptual foundations 8

  2.2. Cold War context 10

  2.3. Current contexts 11

  2.4. Summary 16

Chapter 3. Mechanisms and pathways of inadvertent escalation 17

  3.1. First conventional-to-nuclear pathway: Attacks on C4ISR/NC3 18

  3.2. Second conventional-to-nuclear pathway: Counterforce attack 19

  3.3. Third conventional-to-nuclear pathway: Missile defence 21

  3.4. Fourth conventional-to-nuclear pathway: Existential threats to regime or societal survival 22

  3.5. Summary 23

Chapter 4. NATO–Russia strategic and doctrinal assumptions 24

  4.1. NATO and Russian strategic and doctrinal approaches and assumptions in the Euro-Atlantic theatre 24

  4.2. The North Atlantic and High North 26

  4.3. The Baltics and the Baltic Sea 28

  4.4. Kaliningrad 30

  4.5. The Black Sea 31

  4.6. Summary 32

Chapter 5. Conventional drivers of NATO–Russia inadvertent escalation 33

  5.1. The North Atlantic and High North 33

  5.2. The Baltics 37

  5.3. Kaliningrad 39

  5.4. The Black Sea 42

Chapter 6. Avenues to inadvertent escalation between NATO and Russia 45

  6.1. Context and analytical framework 45

  6.2. Structural inadvertent escalation risks 47

  6.3. Cross-regional inadvertent escalation risks 50

  6.4. Specific subregional inadvertent escalation risks and pathways 52

  6.5. Summary 58

Chapter 7. Conclusion 59

References 62

Annex A. European conventional capabilities 82

  A.1. European long-range strike projects 82

  A.2. European missile defence projects 83

  A.3. European conventional capabilities and escalation 84