Introduction 1

Export Controls and the Cold War Analogy 3

  The Current Chip Export Control System 5

  Effectiveness of Cold War Controls 6

  Where the Cold War Analogy Breaks Down 7

New Export Control Challenges 9

China’s Response 11

  Circumventing Export Controls 11

  Accelerating Self-Sufficiency 12

  Improved Performance in Domestic Chips 13

  The Key Role of Huawei 13

  Rapid Advances in Domestic Manufacturing Equipment 14

  Working Around Export Controls 14

  Alternative Technologies 15

Costs and Risks for the United States 17

  Revenue and R&D Impacts on U.S. Firms 17

Moving Beyond National Security 20

  Trade Bargaining Chips 20

  Controls for Revenue Generation 21

A Positive Agenda for Technology Leadership 23

About the Authors 25

About CSIS 27

Endnotes 28