1 Introduction 1

  1.1 Background and related literature 3

2 Data and Methodology 5

  2.1 Key variables and methodology 6

  2.2 Leveraging global oil shocks for identification 7

  2.3 Sign-based identification 8

  2.4 Regression-based identification 9

3 Regression specifications 10

  3.1 Commodity prices 11

  3.2 Global output and global CPI 11

  3.3 Financial conditions and bond spreads 12

4 Chokepoints around the world 12

  4.1 Maritime traffic across world chokepoints: some stylised facts 14

5 Empirical analysis 16

  5.1 Commodity prices 17

    5.1.1 The distribution of commodity price risks 18

    5.1.2 Global commodity prices, Hormuz maritime traffic and global oil shocks 18

    5.1.3 Global commodity prices and maritime traffic at global chokepoints 21

  5.2 Global output and prices 23

    5.2.1 The distribution of stagflation risks 24

    5.2.2 Hormuz maritime traffic, global oil shocks and global output and prices 26

    5.2.3 Hormuz maritime traffic, global chokepoints and global consumer prices 28

  5.3 The global financial effects of disruptions to Hormuz traffic 30

    5.3.1 Hormuz maritime traffic, global oil shocks and bond spreads 32

    5.3.2 Maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, bond spreads and global chokepoint shocks 35

6 Conclusion 39