About This Report iii

Summary v

Figures and Tables xiii

Chapter 1. Understanding a Historic Rivalry 1

  The Geostrategic Context for the U.S.-China Relationship 2

  The Need for a Shared Understanding of the Relationship 4

Chapter 2. U.S. and Chinese Narratives on the Competition 7

  U.S. Perceptions of the Competition 7

  China’s Perceptions of the Competition 9

  Lessons: Starkly Different Conceptions of the Relationship 10

Chapter 3. Where Do the Two Sides Stand—and Where Are They Headed? 13

  China’s Exploding Strengths 14

  China’s Deepening Weaknesses 19

  An Inflection Point for U.S. Competitive Standing 28

  Summing Up: A Contest of Vast Complexity and Uncertainty 30

Chapter 4. The Nature of the China Challenge 33

  The Baseline: A Classic Great Power 34

  The Cultural Component: A Civilization-State 35

  The Ideological Element: A Marxist-Leninist Power 36

  A Developmental State 39

  An Emerging Scientific and Industrial Hegemon 40

  Xi’s China: A Leninist-Personalist Dictatorship 41

  U.S. Parallels—and a Competition of Identities 42

  Summing Up: What Sort of Challenge—and What Sort of Competition? 44

Chapter 5. What Does China Want? 47

  Defining China’s Goals: Broad Categories 49

  Beijing’s Intent to Shape the International Order 50

  China’s Ambitions: Getting Specific 53

  Making Sense of China’s Goals 54

Chapter 6. A Framework for Understanding the Competition: Seven Issue Areas 59

  Domestic Economics 62

  National Scientific and Technological Innovation Capacity 63

  Resources and Materials 64

  Information, Ideology, and Culture 65

  Diplomacy 66

  International Economics 67

  Military 68

  Crosscutting Themes 69

  Conclusion: Mapping an Evolving Competition 70

Chapter 7. Initial Implications for U.S. Strategy 71

  Tentative Findings 71

  Priority Investments 77

  Abbreviations 81

Notes 83

References 91