Executive Summary 1

Introduction 3

1 From the escalation ladder to contemporary escalation dynamics 5

  Escalation, de-escalation and the escalation ladder 5

  The informational conditions of escalation management 7

  A contested information environment 9

  From additional rungs to multiple pathways 11

  Non-linear, cross-domain and wormhole escalation 13

2 The escalation lattice as an analytical framework 15

  From ladder to lattice 15

  Reading the lattice 16

  Ordered, multidirectional and wormhole pathways 17

  Using the lattice in a crisis or exercise 21

3 Implications for escalation management 23

  Signalling, deniability, control and ambiguity 23

  Managing multidirectional and discontinuous escalation 25

  Speed as a conditional amplifier 28

4 Case studies 30

  Case Study 1: Russian nuclear threats relating to potential deep strike capabilities for Ukraine (July 2024) 31

  Case Study 2: Russian sabotage by exploding parcels and a delay in attribution (July 2024) 37

  Case Study 3: Russian drone incursion into Poland (September 2025) 42

  Comparison of case studies 48

5 Policy recommendations 51

  Recommendation 1: Strengthen preparedness through procedures and exercises 51

  Recommendation 2: Ensure reliable and resilient communication 52

  Recommendation 3: Invest in timely and credible attribution 52

  Recommendation 4: Develop credible and calibrated response options 53

  Recommendation 5: Use clear and differentiated signalling 53

Conclusion 55

  Contemporary escalation dynamics 55

  Lessons from the case studies 56

  The contribution and limits of the escalation lattice 57

  Implications for the Netherlands and its allies 58