Assumptions and Conventions vi

Further Information viii

Preface x

Foreword xi

Executive Summary xiii

Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1

 A Split View of the Global Economy 1

 Recent Developments: Resilient but Uneasy 2

 The Sources of Resilience 3

 The Limits of Resilience 7

 The Outlook: Divided amid Crosscurrents 8

 Risks: Narrower Margins, Larger Stakes 15

 Policies: Agility under Constraint 18

 Box 1.1. Where Did Displaced Trade Go? Evidence on Trade Reconfiguration and Export Resilience 23

 Box 1.2. Risk Assessment Surrounding the Baseline Projection 25

 Commodity Special Feature: Market Developments and the Real-Time Impact of Geopolitics on Energy Prices 31

 References 45

Chapter 2. Navigating a Shock-Prone World: Lessons from Cost-of-Living Crises 47

 Introduction 47

 Cost-of-Living Crises: A Primer 49

 Anatomy of Cost-of-Living Crises 50

 Policy Responses in Past Crises 54

 Looking Ahead: Adjusting the Toolkit for a Shock-Prone World 57

 Conclusions and Policy Implications 63

 Box 2.1. Cost-of-Living Crises, Rents, and Monetary Policy 65

 References 67

Chapter 3. Intangible Yet Real: Spillovers from Corporate Income Taxation 69

 Introduction 69

 A Primer on Spillovers from Corporate Income Tax Policy Changes 71

 Macroeconomic Spillovers from Corporate Income Tax Policies 74

 Spillovers from Tax Competition and Base Shifting 77

 How Does Tax Competition Alter Transmission Abroad? 79

 Response of Multinational Corporations along Different Margins 80

 Tax Competition and Anti-Avoidance: Long-Term Implications for Emerging Market and Developing Economy Revenue and Growth 82

 Conclusion 85

 Box 3.1. The Interplay between Tax Incentives and International Tax Rules 87

 Box 3.2. Key Developments in International Corporate Income Taxation 88

 Box 3.3. The Geography of Innovation Income 90

 References 92

World Economic Outlook Selected Topics 95

IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, October 2026 105

Tables

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