Executive Summary 2

1. CADA Extends Well beyond Government Cloud Procurement 15

  1.1 Three Scenarios Reflecting Different Implementation Paths 16

  1.2 Coverage of Public Authorities and Essential Businesses  17

2. Measuring the Economic Impacts 17

  2.1 Cumulative Economic Exposure 18

  2.2 From Public Procurement to a Public Cloud Base 18

  2.3 Constructing the Private-Sector Base 19

  2.4 Price Assumptions and National Baselines 19

  2.5 Sensitivity Around the Public ICT Expenditure Base 20

3. EU27 Economic Impacts: Policy Implementation Choices Drive Fiscal and Economic Costs 20

4. The Recurring Cloud-Price Effect 21

5. Cloud Migration and System Redesign: The Largest Transition cost 23

6. Compliant Supply: Capacity, Investment and Temporary Price Pressures 24

  6.1 Temporary Scarcity Is a Transition Effect 26

  6.2 Existing Commercial Discounts Can Be Part of the Transition Too 27

  6.3 Software, Not Servers, Can Become the Binding Constraint 27

  6.4 Higher Assurance Requirements Can Increase Intra-EU dependence 28

7. Delayed Digitalisation Creates Economic Opportunity Costs 29

8. Europe's Own Cloud and Technology Suppliers Are Also Part of the Adjustment 31

  8.1 Measuring European Technology-Supplier Exposure 31

  8.2 European Technology-Supplier Exposure and Potential Output Effects 32

9. Cross-Country Variation in Economic Exposrure 33

  9.1 Drivers of Cross-Country Variation 33

  9.2 Public-Sector Incidence Across Levels of Government 34

  9.3 National Baselines Can Vary Within Countries 36

10. Wider Macroeconomic Impacts 37

  10.1 Methodological Approach 37

  10.2 Macroeconomic Results 38

  10.3 Reallocation Across Sectors 40

11. The Impact of Different Implementation Choices 40

12. Conclusions and Implications for the Assessment of CADA 42

Annex I: Interpretation and Methodological Considerations 44