Abstract 1

Dedication 2

Acknowledgments 3

Contents 5

Figures and Tables 8

Abbreviations 10

Executive Summary 13

  Problem Statement 13

  Approach 13

  Key Findings 14

  Key Recommendations 14

Chapter 1. Introduction 16

  DAF Pilot Pipeline 16

  Policy Context: The Fighter Pilot Shortage 17

  Conceptual Framework 17

  Alternative Career Paths 19

  Research Questions 20

  Hypotheses 20

  Methodological Overview 20

  Organization of the Study 21

Chapter 2. The Air Force Pilot Shortage 22

  The Pilot Management System 22

  Production Reform and Its’ Downstream Limits 24

  Absorption – The Central Operational Bottleneck 25

  Retention – A Critical Experience Constraint 30

  Historical and Structural Sources of Current Shortage 32

  Retention Initiatives: Setting the Stage for Alternative Career Paths 33

  Conclusion 37

Chapter 3. Simulation Model Design 38

  Two Alternative Career Paths for Consideration 38

  Mixed-Methods Research Advantages 39

  The Simulation Model 40

  Model Initialization Logic 45

  The Upgrade Mechanism 49

  Sortie Generation & Allocation 51

  Personnel Flow: PCS & Movement Logic 55

Chapter 4. Model Excursions and Results 57

  Parameterization 58

  Policy Excursions 62

Chapter 5. Engaging CAF Instructor Pilots for Critical Perspectives 78

  CAF Instructor Pilots 78

  Key theme: You cannot outproduce a retention problem. 79

  Key Theme: There is a cycle of experience loss and burnout in fighter squadrons 83

  Key theme: Stability, control and job satisfaction outweigh monetary incentives alone. 87

  Key theme: Overcoming traditional career model barriers in career track design 89

  Key Theme: Addressing institutional distrust prior to policy implementation 90

  Key Theme: Active-Duty career tracks compete with Guard and Reserve Opportunities. 94

  Key Theme: Assignment location is a critical factor in career-track uptake. 97

  Key Theme: Policy changes may cause unintended effects on non-targeted pilots 100

  Key Theme: Individual retention preferences require flexible policy options 101

Chapter 6. Perspectives from the Training Pipeline - First Assignment Instructor Pilots 104

  Key Theme: Negative perception of FAIP assignment driven by location, work-load, and delayed career progression 105

  Key Theme: Support for a career AETC track depends on clear progression and recognition. 109

  Key Theme: Operational credibility requires force mix and instructor development 111

  Key Theme: Voluntary uptake hinges on targeted and flexible incentives 113

Chapter 7. Synthesis: Integrating Model Insights and Pilot Perspectives 116

  Model Results & Interview Findings 116

  Cross-Interview Population Synthesis 117

  Considering Model Limitations and Future Uses 119

Chapter 8. Recommendations for Optimizing Retention of Combat Pilots 121

  Key Findings 123

  Policy Recommendations 124

  Conclusion 126

  Areas for Future Research 127

Appendix A: Model Baseline and Policy Excursion Validation 128

  Comparison to Prior Validated Model 128

  SME Validation with ACC 128

  Conclusion 131

Appendix B: Semi-Structured Interview Protocol 132

  Sampling Strategy and Saturation 132

  Sample Composition 132

  Interview Protocol 133

  Internal Review Board Information 134

Appendix C: Background on Recent Changes to Air Force Retirement and Aviator Retention Incentives 135

  Retirement Systems: Legacy vs. Blended Retirement Systems 135

  Aviation Bonus (AvB) 136

  The Demonstration program: DPMI and DPAP 136

  FY26 Changes 137

  References 138