CONTENTS 1

FIGURE & TABLES 2

1. INTRODUCTION: A CORDON SANITAIRE UNDER PRESSURE 3

2. METHODOLOGY 6

3. THE INTERESTS BEHIND WEAKENING THE CORDON SANITAIRE 10

  3.1. THE EPP’S INTERESTS 11

  3.2. THE ECR’S INTERESTS 13

  3.3. THE INTERESTS OF THE PFE AND THE ESN 14

  3.4. THE EPP’S CHANGED TERMS OF COOPERATION DO NOT EXIST IN A VACUUM 16

  3.5. ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT 17

4. POLICY ALIGNMENT ON THE RIGHT REMAINS SELECTIVE, NOT STRUCTURAL 18

  4.1. MIGRATION 21

  4.2. GREEN DEAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY 23

  4.3. AGRICULTURE AND THE CAP 25

  4.4. SINGLE MARKET 26

  4.5. FOREIGN POLICY  28

  4.6. DEFENCE AND SECURITY 32

  4.7. DEMOGRAPHY 34

  4.8. SELECTIVE CHANGES, CONTINUED CENTRIST ALIGNMENT 35

5. COMPATIBLE OR IRRECONCILABLE? COMPETING CONSERVATISMS IN EUROPE 37

  5.1. TWO AXES OF INCOMPATIBILITY: EUROPE AND LIBERAL DEMOCRACY 38

  5.2. THE NON-BINARY REALITY OF CONSERVATIVE POLITICS 40

  5.3. WAITING FOR A ‘CONSTRUCTIVE RIGHT’ OR EMPOWERING THE RADICALS? 41

  5.4. SYNTHESIS OR ZERO-SUM COMPETITION? 43

6. CONCLUSION: THE CORDON SANITAIRE IN A NEW EQUILIBRIUM 44

REFERENCES 46

ANNEX I. LIST OF INTERVIEWED PERSONS 47