Summary 4

1 What is hybrid warfare? 7

2 Russian hybrid activities across Europe 8

  2.1 Threat assessment in 2026 10

       Intelligence assessments 11

       Increasing rhetoric towards the UK 14

       Russia’s use of nuclear threats 15

  2.2 Russia’s position 17

3 How has Europe and the UK been responding? 19

  3.1 NATO’s strategy for countering hybrid threats 19

       Cyber defence 20

       Countering hybrid threats 20

       Countering information threats 22

       Invoking NATO’s article 5? 23

  3.2 EU response to the hybrid threat 24

       Policy framework 24

       The EU’s hybrid toolbox 25

       Sanctions 26

       Eastern Flank Watch and the European Drone Defence Initiative 27

       Calls for a more overt EU response 28

  3.3 UK action 30

       New national security legislation 31

       Sanctions 31

       Responding to the hybrid threat in the maritime domain 32

       A whole of society approach to defence and security 36

4 Appendix One – Timeline of major incidents with alleged Russian involvement in 2026 38