Acknowledgements iv

Executive Summary v

1 Introduction 1

2 Beijing’s Strategic Vision: Hong Kong in China’s Financial Strategy 10

3 The Connect Revolution: China’s Savings on a Longer Leash 39

4 Hong Kong as Offshore Financier: Yuan-Denominated Capital for the World 71

5 The Listings Shift: Foreign Capital, on China’s Terms 95

6 The Settlement Rails: Digital Yuan, CIPS, and Tokenization 115

7 The HKD Peg: Linchpin or Liability? 140

8 How the World Is Responding: Non-Western Investors and Global Financial Institutions 159

9 Scenarios: Four Futures for Hong Kong 177

10 America’s Strategic Choices 191

11 Conclusion 207

Appendix 215

Abbreviations 228

List of text boxes and infographics 230

About the author 231