국회도서관 국가전략정보포털

Foreword 3 
Acknowledgements 5
Executive summary 13

1 Announced net zero pledges and the energy sector  29 
1.1  Introduction 30 
1.2  Emissions reduction targets and net zero pledges  31 
　1.2.1  Nationally Determined Contributions 31 
　1.2.2  Net‐zero emissions pledges 32 
1.3  Outlook for emissions and energy in the STEPS  36 
　1.3.1  CO2 emissions  36 
　1.3.2  Total energy supply, total final consumption and  electricity  generation 37 
　1.3.3  Emissions from existing assets  39 
1.4  Announced Pledges Case 40 
　1.4.1  CO2 emissions  41 
　1.4.2  Total energy supply 43 
　1.4.3  Total final consumption 44 
　1.4.4  Electricity generation 45 

2 A global pathway to net‐zero CO₂ emissions in 2050  47 
2.1  Introduction 48 
2.2  Scenario design  48 
　2.2.1  Population and GDP 50 
　2.2.2  Energy and CO2 prices  51 
2.3  CO2 emissions  53 
2.4  Total energy supply and total final consumption  56 
　2.4.1  Total energy supply 56 
　2.4.2  Total final consumption 60 
2.5  Key pillars of decarbonisation 64 
　2.5.1  Energy efficiency  65 
　2.5.2  Behavioural change 67 
　2.5.3  Electrification 70 
　2.5.4  Renewables 73 
　2.5.5  Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels 75 
　2.5.6  Bioenergy 77 
　2.5.7  Carbon capture, utilisation and storage  79 
2.6  Investment  81 
2.7  Key uncertainties 83 
　2.7.1  Behavioural change 84 
　2.7.2  Bioenergy and land‐use change 90 
　2.7.3  CCUS applied to emissions from fossil fuels  94 

3 Sectoral pathways to net‐zero emissions by 2050  99 
3.1  Introduction 100 
3.2  Fossil fuel supply 100 
　3.2.1  Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  100 
　3.2.2  Investment in oil and gas 103 
　3.2.3  Emissions from fossil fuel production  104 
3.3  Low‐emissions fuel supply 105 
　3.3.1  Energy trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  105 
　3.3.2  Biofuels  106 
　3.3.3  Hydrogen and hydrogen‐based fuels 108 
　3.3.4  Key milestones and decision points 111 
3.4  Electricity sector  113 
　3.4.1  Energy and emissions trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  113 
　3.4.2  Key milestones and decision points 117 
3.5  Industry 121 
　3.5.1  Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  121 
　3.5.2  Key milestones and decision points 129 
3.6  Transport 131 
　3.6.1  Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  131 
　3.6.2  Key milestones and decision points 138 
3.7  Buildings  141 
　3.7.1  Energy and emission trends in the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario  141 
　3.7.2  Key milestones and decision points 147 

4 Wider implications of achieving net‐zero emissions  151 
4.1  Introduction 152 
4.2  Economy  153 
　4.2.1  Investment and financing  153 
　4.2.2  Economic activity 155 
　4.2.3  Employment  157 
4.3  Energy industry  160 
　4.3.1  Oil and gas 160 
　4.3.2  Coal  162 
　4.3.3  Electricity 163 
　4.3.4  Energy‐consuming industries  165 
4.4  Citizens  167 
　4.4.1  Energy‐related Sustainable Development Goals 167 
　4.4.2  Affordability 170 
　4.4.3  Behavioural changes  173 
4.5  Governments 175 
　4.5.1  Energy security  175 
　4.5.2  Infrastructure 180 
　4.5.3  Tax revenues from retail energy sales 183 
　4.5.4  Innovation  184 
　4.5.5  International co‐operation  187 

Annexes  191 
Annex A Tables for scenario projections 193 
Annex B Technology costs  201 
Annex C Definitions  203 
Annex D References 217