Contents

Qualitative risk assessment 1

Executive summary 5

Background 7

Trends and risk levels in the current epizootic 7

Captive bird orders glossary 9

Hazard identification 10

Risk question 10

Scope 10

Terminology related to the assessed level of risk 10

Entry assessment 10

Likelihood of captive bird being infected prior to being taken to gathering 11

Psittaciformes and passeriformes 14

Columbiformes 15

Birds of prey (accipitriformes and falconiformes) 17

Ratites 17

Galliformes 17

Anseriformes 18

Likelihood of HPAIV H5Nx not being detected prior to gathering 18

Psittaciformes 19

Columbiformes 19

Birds of prey 19

Passerines 20

Galliformes 21

Anseriformes 21

Ratites 22

Exposure assessment 22

Spread of disease within the gathering 22

Qualitative risk assessment 23

Consequence assessment 25

Spread of disease from the gathering 25

Mitigation measures 26

Conclusions 26

Uncertainties 28

References 28

Annex 1 31