Title page 1

Contents 4

About the Author 5

Acronyms and Abbreviations 5

Executive Summary 6

Overview 7

AI in Middle-Income Countries: Sectoral Growth and Dependency 8

AI Sector Leadership Context 9

AI Trade Dependency 9

AI Start-Ups in 10 Middle-Income Economies 29

Investors in AI Start-Ups 32

AI Policy and International Economic Relations 35

Thinking Outside the Box: Advanced Economy Partners and the Path to Managed Interdependence 38

Conclusions 44

Acknowledgements 48

Appendix 1: Key Data Sources 49

Works Cited 50

Table 1. Shares and Intensity of Internet Traffic, 12 Months Ending April 8, 2026 11

Table 2. Generative AI Services, Usage Ranked, with Illustrative Parent Company Characteristics 12

Table 3. AI Bot and Web Crawler Activity, Year Ending April 9, 2026, Shares by Purpose, Percentages 15

Table 4. Snapshots of the AI Sample Product Groups, by HS Category 18

Table 5. Country Dependency Profiles, AI-Stack Products, Latest Available Year (2024 or 2023) 21

Table 6A. Top Three Supplier Country Rankings (10 Reporters, Five Products, All Import Flows) 23

Table 6B. Top Three Supplier Country Rankings (10 Reporters, Five Products, Import Flows ≥ US$1 Billion) 24

Table 7. Telecommunications, Computer and Information Services Import Dependency, 2024 27

Table 8. AI Start-Ups Overview - Baseline Profile, 10 Middle-Income Countries, N=9,554 Start-Ups, Q1 2026 31

Table 9. AI Start-Up Investment Overview, 10 Country Comparison, Q1 2026 34

Table 10. AI Start-Up Employment Estimates, 10 Middle-Income Countries, Q1 2026 36

Table 11. Comparative AI Policy Development Status as of Q1 2026 37

Figure 1. Internet Traffic Around the World, Shares of Total Bytes, with Names of the Sample Countries Highlighted 10

Figure 2. Situation of Five Import Product Categories in the AI Hardware Stack 17

Boxes 8

Box 1. Managed Interdependence 8

Box 2. HHI 19

Box 3. Ireland and US Services Exports 26