국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Acknowledgments 8

Glossary of Keywords and Phrases 10

Acronyms 13

Foreword (The World Bank) 16

Foreword (International Cryosphere Climate Initiative) 17

Main Messages 19

Chapter 1. Introduction 24

Chapter 2. State of the Cryosphere: 2013 27

2.1. Climate Change Impacts in Five Cryosphere Regions 27

2.1.1. The Himalayas 27

2.1.2. The Arctic 28

2.1.3. East African Highlands 30

2.1.4. Andes and Patagonia 31

2.1.5. Antarctica 32

2.2/2.7. Pan-Cryosphere Feedbacks: Albedo, Permafrost Melt, and Sea-level Rise 33

2.2.1/2.7.1. Albedo 33

2.2.2/2.7.2. Permafrost 33

2.2.3/2.7.3. Sea-level Rise 34

Chapter 3. The Role of Short-lived Pollutants in Cryosphere Protection 36

3.1. Early Arctic and Himalayan Work 36

3.2. Slowing Near-term Warming: The UNEP/WMO Assessment 36

3.3. Why Short-lived Pollutants Have Greater Cryosphere Impact 37

Chapter 4. Methods, Measures and Reductions 40

4.1. Improvements in Models, Emissions Estimates, and Cryosphere Impacts 40

4.2. Stoves 42

4.3. Diesel 42

4.4. Open Burning 42

4.5. Flaring from Oil and Gas 43

4.6. Note on Black Carbon Measures Not Included 43

4.7. Methane Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures 44

4.7.1. Fossil Fuel Extraction 44

4.7.2. Waste 45

4.7.3. Agriculture 45

Chapter 5. Cryosphere Benefits: Where Health and Climate Intersect 48

5.1. The Himalayas 49

5.2. The Arctic 52

5.3. East African Highlands 53

5.4. Andes and Patagonia 55

5.5. Antarctica 56

5.6. Pan-Cryosphere Benefits 57

5.6.1. Loss of Albedo: Sea Ice and Snow Cover 58

5.6.2. Permafrost Loss 59

5.6.3/5.6.2. Sea-Level Rise 59

5.7. Global Benefits 61

5.7.1. Global Health Benefits 61

5.7.2. Global Crop and Forestry Benefits 63

5.7.3. Global Climate Benefits 63

5.8. Black Carbon: Radiative Forcing and Regional and Global Uncertainties 64

Chapter 6. Discussion: Implications for Sectoral Actions 69

6.1. Biomass Cookstoves 69

6.2. Biomass and Coal Heating Stoves 70

6.3. Open Burning 71

6.4. Diesel 71

6.5. Oil and Gas Flaring 71

6.6. A New Measure: Wick Lanterns 72

6.7. Methane Measures 72

6.7.1. Oil and Gas Extraction and Mining Operations 72

6.7.2. Wastewater and Landfills 73

6.7.3. Agriculture 73

6.8. Operational Implications for Development Financing 73

Bibliography 76

Annex 1. BenMap/FaSST Global and National Health Impact Tables 82

Summary Results 82

Annex 2. Modeling Methods and Parameters 89

Background 89

Emissions 89

Composition-Climate Models 91

Methodology for Forcing Estimates 93

Health and Crop Impact Analysis 96

Table ES 1. Modeled Reduction Measures 22

Table 1. Black Carbon Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures Assessed 41

Table 2. Methane Sources and Modeled Reduction Measures Assessed (showing percentage of emissions reductions globally permeasure) 44

Table 3. Primary Cryosphere Black Carbon Source Regions 48

Table 4. Estimated Premature Mortality Avoided based on the U.S. EPA's BenMAP tool and the European Commission Joint Research Center's FaSST Tool 62

Table 5. Annual Increase in the Yield of Four Staple Crops (Wheat, Rice, Maize and Soybean) Due to the Surface Ozone Change Associated with each Black... 63

Table 6. Percentage of Methane Reductions Available from the Defined Measures as Modeled 72

Figure ES 1. Land Glacier Ice Loss, Showing Cumulative Mass Lost Over Time (a) and Relative Contribution of Loss in Each Region to Sea-level Rise (b) 19

Figure ES 2. Percentage Change in Arctic Summer Ice (a) and Boreal Spring Snow (b) in 2050 due to Full Implementation of Black Carbon and Methane... 21

Figure 1. Predicted Percentage of Glacial Melts Contributing to Basin Flows in the Himalayan Basins 28

Figure 2. Arctic Monthly Sea Ice Extent - 1953-2013 Anomalies around 1981-2010 mean in standard deviations 29

Figure 3. Land Glacier Ice Loss 31

Figure 4. Impact of SLCP Measures on Warming by Latitude from the UNEP/WMO Assessment (2011) 37

Figure 5. Regions Used in the Calculation of Radiative Forcing 49

Figure 6. Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Himalayas for a Range of Potential Black Carbon Emissions Reductions 51

Figure 7. Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Arctic from Black Carbon Emissions Reductions 53

Figure 8. Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for East Africa from Black Carbon Emissions Reductions 54

Figure 9. Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for the Andes from Black Carbon Reductions 56

Figure 10. Average Radiative Forcing Estimates for Antarctica for Black Carbon Measures 58

Figure 11. Percentage Change in Boreal Summer (June-August) Arctic Ice Cover in 2050 due to Full Implementation of Methane and Black Carbon Measures by 2030 58

Figure 12. Percentage Change in Boreal Springtime (March-May) Snow Cover in 2050 due to Full Implementation of BlackCarbon and Methane Measures by 2030 59

Figure 13. Soil Temperature and Permafrost Warming by 2090 59

Figure 14. AR5 Projections of Global Mean Sea-level Rise over the 21st Century Relative to 1986-2005 60

Figure 15a. Sea-level Rise (Thermal Expansion Only) with SLCP Measures 60

Figure 15b. Sea-level Rise (Including Projected Land Ice Melt) with SLCP Measures 61

Figure 16. Regional Distribution of Avoided Premature Mortality in 2030 as Estimated by the BenMAP Tool for all PM2.5 and Ozone Impacts with All Measures... 62

Figure 17. Annual Average Avoided Surface Warming Attributable to the 0.32 W m-2 Reduction in Forcing Stemming from the Methane Emission Reductions... 65

Figure 18. Probability Density Functions (pdfs) for the Total Forcing due to All the Measures. PDFs are calculated using the mean of three methods (UNEP-based,... 65

Figure 19. All Methane and Black Carbon UNEP/WMO Assessment Measures. Source: Shindell et al. (2012), using GISS-E2-S. From Simultaneously Mitigating... 66

Boxes

Box 1. Modeled Benefits in the Himalayas 50

Box 2. Capturing All Health Impacts from Cookstove Interventions 51

Box 3. Modeled Benefits in the Arctic 52

Box 4. Modeled Benefits in the East African Highlands 54

Box 5. Modeled Benefits in the Andes and Patagonia 55

Box 6. Modeled Benefits in Antarctica 57

Box 7. Forestry Benefits 64

Annex Tables

Table A1. Global Avoided Premature Mortality by Scenario 82

Table A2. Country-level Avoided Premature Mortality by Scenario 83

Table A3. Black-Carbon-Related Measures Identified as Mitigating Climate Change and Improving Air Quality which have a Large Emission Reduction Potential 90

Table A4. Simulations Performed by the Composition-Climate Models 93

Table A5. UNEP-based and Bond-based Values for Anthropogenic Forcing used as Calibration 94

Table A6/Table A4. Distribution of the effect of exposure reduction of PM2.5 on total DALYs and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Nepal (LPG/Biogas) 100

Table A7/Table A5. Distribution of the effect of exposure reduction of PM2.5 on total DALYs and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Nepal (Blower) 100

Table A8/Table A6. Distribution of the effect of exposure reduction of PM2.5 on total DALYs and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Peru (LPG/Biogas) 101

Table A9/Table A7. Distribution of the effect of exposure reduction of PM2.5 on total DALYs and deaths for ALRI, COPD, IHD, Lung cancer and Stroke in Peru (Blower) 101

Annex Figures

Figure A1. Change in 2030 Anthropogenic Emissions Relative to the Reference for Each Measure by Emitted Component 90

Figure A2-A4. Calculated Estimates of Total Regional Forcing Change from Implementation of Eight Potential BC Measures using Three Different Assumptions... 95

Figure A5-A6. Calculated Estimates of Total Regional Forcing Change from Implementation of Eight Potential BC Measures using Three Different Assumptions... 96

Figure A7. Comparison of the Ozone plus Aerosol Direct (blue), Aerosol Indirect (brown) and Total (black) Forcing in Response to the Indicated Measures... 97

Figure A8. Relationship between Percentage Reduction in Biomass and AOT40, on an Annual Basis, for the Deciduous, Sensitive trees Species Category,... 99