Title page

Contents

Preface 4

Overview of methodology 5

Executive Summary 6

1. Global Risks 2023: Today's Crisis 13

1.1. Current crises 13

1.2. The path to 2025 14

Cost-of-living crisis 15

Economic downturn 17

Geoeconomic warfare 19

Climate action hiatus 21

Societal polarization 23

1.3. Looking ahead 25

Endnotes 26

2. Global Risks 2033: Tomorrow's Catastrophes 29

2.1. The world in 2033 29

2.2. Natural ecosystems: past the point of no return 31

2.3. Human health: perma-pandemics and chronic capacity challenges 35

2.4. Human security: new weapons, new conflicts 38

2.5. Digital rights: privacy in peril 42

2.6. Economic stability: global debt distress 46

Endnotes 50

3. Resource Rivalries: Four Emerging Futures 57

3.1. Anticipating "polycrises" 57

3.2. Polycrisis: natural resources, climate and cooperation 57

3.3. Four futures for 2030 60

Endnotes 67

4. Conclusion: is preparedness possible? 69

Endnotes 73

Appendix A. Technical Notes: Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023 74

Appendix B. Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions 79

Acknowledgements 96

FIGURE 1.1. Currently manifesting risks 13

FIGURE 1.2. Global risks ranked by severity over the short term (2 years) 14

FIGURE 1.3. Severity by stakeholder over the short term (2 years) 15

FIGURE 1.4. Price hikes in basic necessities, 2020-2022 16

FIGURE 1.5. National risk perceptions: inflation 17

FIGURE 1.6. Sovereign debt in default 18

FIGURE 1.7. National risk perceptions: interstate confrontation 19

FIGURE 1.8. National risk perceptions: climate action 22

FIGURE 1.9. Risk interconnections: the erosion of social cohesion 23

FIGURE 1.10. Short- and long-term global outlook 25

FIGURE 2.1. Global risks ranked by severity over the long term (10 years) 29

FIGURE 2.2. Relative severity of risks over a 2 and 10-year period 30

FIGURE 2.3. Compounding environmental crises 31

FIGURE 2.4. Impacts of climate change on ecosystems 32

FIGURE 2.5. Loss of functional health 36

FIGURE 2.6. Pre-2022 trends in militarization and conflict 39

FIGURE 2.7. Diffuse research and development 40

FIGURE 2.8. Key drivers of interstate conflict 41

FIGURE 2.9. Risk interconnections: cyber insecurity 43

FIGURE 2.10. The composition of public debt 47

FIGURE 3.1. Natural resource polycrisis 58

FIGURE 3.2. Natural resource polycrisis: futures framework 59

FIGURE 3.3. Level of water stress by major river basin, 2018 61

FIGURE 3.4. Relevance of critical metals and minerals 63

FIGURE 3.5. Reserves of critical metals and minerals 64

FIGURE 4.1. Perceptions around preparedness and governance 70

Boxes

BOX 1. Futures framework 59

TABLE A.1. Definitions of global risks 74

TABLE B.1. List of risks 79

TABLE B.2. Top five risks identified by the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) 80

FIGURE A.1/FIGURE A.2. Survey sample composition 78