목차
Title page
Contents
Acknowledgements 4
Executive Summary 19
1. 2021 AGEING REPORT: MANDATE, PURPOSE, COVERAGE AND OVERVIEW 19
2. THE ECONOMIC AND BUDGETARY IMPACT OF POPULATION AGEING 21
Part I. Underlying demographic and macroeconomic assumptions 35
1. DEMOGRAPHIC ASSUMPTIONS 36
1.1. KEY DRIVERS 36
1.2. OVERALL RESULTS OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS 40
1.3. POPULATION AGEING IN THE EU IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT 45
2. MACROECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 47
2.1. BACKGROUND 47
2.2. LABOUR FORCE PROJECTIONS 47
2.3. PROJECTIONS OF LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND GDP 57
2.4. COMPARISON WITH THE 2018 AGEING REPORT 60
3. SENSITIVITY TESTS 65
3.1. OVERVIEW OF SENSITIVITY SCENARIOS 65
3.2. PROJECTION RESULTS 66
Part II. Long-term projections of age-related expenditure 68
1. PENSIONS 69
1.1. INTRODUCTION 69
1.2. TAXONOMY OF PUBLIC PENSION SCHEMES IN EU MEMBER STATES 69
1.3. COVERAGE OF PENSION PROJECTIONS 71
1.4. FEATURES OF PENSION SYSTEMS IN THE EU 71
1.5. PENSION EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS 85
1.6. DRIVERS OF PENSION EXPENDITURE 96
1.7. DISAGGREGATION OF NEW PENSIONS 105
1.8. SENSITIVITY TESTS 108
1.9. COMPARISON WITH THE 2018 AGEING REPORT 116
2. HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE 121
2.1. INTRODUCTION 121
2.2. DETERMINANTS OF HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE 121
2.3. SHORT OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 128
2.4. PROJECTION RESULTS 139
2.5. COMPARISON WITH THE 2018 AGEING REPORT 149
2.6. CONCLUSIONS 151
3. LONG TERM CARE 154
3.1. INTRODUCTION 154
3.2. DETERMINANTS OF LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURE 155
3.3. OVERVIEW OF THE PROJECTION METHODOLOGY 161
3.4. PROJECTION RESULTS 166
3.5. COMPARISON WITH THE 2018 AGEING REPORT 174
3.6. CONCLUSIONS 177
4. EDUCATION 180
4.1. INTRODUCTION 180
4.2. GENERAL CHARACTERISTICS OF NATIONAL EDUCATION SYSTEMS 180
4.3. PROJECTION RESULTS 182
4.4. SENSITIVITY TESTS 187
ANNEX I. PENSION QUESTIONNAIRE 190
ANNEX II. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PENSION SYSTEMS AND PROJECTIONS 195
ANNEX III. INPUT DATA USED TO PROJECT HEALTH CARE EXPENDITURE 197
ANNEX IV. INPUT DATA USED TO PROJECT LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURE 200
ANNEX V. INPUT DATA USED TO PROJECT EDUCATION EXPENDITURE 207
AV.1. METHODOLOGY 207
AV.2. DATA 207
Part III. Statistical Annex - CROSS-COUNTRY TABLES 211
Part IV. Statistical Annex - COUNTRY FICHES 290
1. BELGIUM 291
2. BULGARIA 294
3. CZECHIA 297
4. DENMARK 300
5. GERMANY 303
6. ESTONIA 306
7. IRELAND 309
8. GREECE 312
9. SPAIN 315
10. FRANCE 318
11. CROATIA 321
12. ITALY 324
13. CYPRUS 327
14. LATVIA 330
15. LITHUANIA 333
16. LUXEMBOURG 336
17. HUNGARY 339
18. MALTA 342
19. THE NETHERLANDS 345
20. AUSTRIA 348
21. POLAND 351
22. PORTUGAL 354
23. ROMANIA 357
24. SLOVENIA 360
25. SLOVAKIA 363
26. FINLAND 366
27. SWEDEN 369
28. NORWAY 372
29. EURO AREA 375
30. EUROPEAN UNION 378
Part V. Resources 381
1. ABBREVIATIONS AND SYMBOLS USED 382
2. REFERENCES 386
Table 1. Overview of the 2021 long-term budgetary projections - Baseline scenario 31
Table 2. Overview of the 2021 long-term budgetary projections - TFP risk scenario 32
Table 3. Overview of the 2021 long-term budgetary projections - AWG risk scenario 33
Table 4. Overview of the 2021 vs. 2018 long-term budgetary projections - Baseline scenario 34
Table I.1.1. Projection of net migration flows, 2019-2070 39
Table I.1.2. Total population projections, 2019-2070 40
Table I.1.3. Breakdown of the population by age groups, 2019 and 2070 42
Table I.1.4. Demographic dependency ratios, 2019-2070 42
Table I.1.5. 2018 and 2021 Ageing Reports: Population and dependency ratio projections 43
Table I.1.6. Demographic assumptions in the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Reports, 2019-2070 44
Table I.1.7. Global demographic dependency ratios, 1960-2070 46
Table I.2.1. Breakdown of annual average potential GDP growth rates, 2019-2070 60
Table I.2.2. Comparison of 2021 and 2018 long-term projections: labour force developments 63
Table I.2.3. Comparison of 2021 and 2018 long-term projections: potential GDP growth and its determinants 64
Table I.3.1. Overview of sensitivity tests and alternative scenarios 65
Table I.3.2. Breakdown of the impact of scenarios on average annual potential GDP growth, EU, 2019-2070 66
Table II.1.1. Main type of public pension scheme 69
Table II.1.2. Automatic balancing mechanisms, sustainability factors and links to life expectancy in pension systems 73
Table II.1.3. Statutory retirement ages, early retirement (in brackets) and incentives to postpone retirement 75
Table II.1.4. Average effective labour market exit age, by gender 76
Table II.1.5. Duration of retirement: by gender, as percentage of average working career and as percentage of adult life 78
Table II.1.6. Contributions to the public pension system in 2019 and 2070 79
Table II.1.7. Contribution rates to the public pension system 80
Table II.1.8. Level and change in gross public pension expenditure; 2019-2070, baseline scenario 85
Table II.1.9. Gross public pension expenditure: change per decade 89
Table II.1.10. Change in public pension expenditure per age group in 2019-2070 93
Table II.1.11. Breakdown of change in gross public pension expenditure; 2019-2070 97
Table II.1.12. Contribution of the dependency ratio effect to the change in public pension expenditure 98
Table II.1.13. Coverage ratio (% of population 〉65y) 99
Table II.1.14. Contribution of the coverage ratio effect to the change in public pension expenditure 99
Table II.1.15. Contribution of the benefit ratio effect to the change in public pension expenditure 100
Table II.1.16. Contribution of the labour market effect to the change in public pension expenditure 100
Table II.1.17. Benefit ratio: 2019 and 2070 101
Table II.1.18. Replacement rate: 2019 and 2070 103
Table II.1.19. Minimum pensions (non-contributory) 104
Table II.1.20. Contributory period for new earnings-related public pensions (number of years) 106
Table II.1.21. Average effective accrual rate of new earnings-related public pensions 107
Table II.1.22. Summary table: impact of all sensitivity tests on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 113
Table II.1.23. Comparison of gross public pension expenditure levels in 2019 and 2070: 2018 vs. 2021 Ageing Reports (% and pps of GDP) 117
Table II.1.24. Breakdown of the difference in the gross public pension expenditure change in 2019-2070 between the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Reports 118
Table II.1.25. Alternative breakdown of the difference in the gross public pension expenditure change in 2019-2070 between the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Reports 120
Table II.2.1. Overview of the scenarios used to project health care spending 134
Table II.2.2. Health care reforms with direct budget impact taken into account in the projections 136
Table II.2.3. Demographic scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 140
Table II.2.4. High life expectancy scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 140
Table II.2.5. Healthy ageing scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 141
Table II.2.6. Death-related costs scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 141
Table II.2.7. Income elasticity scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 143
Table II.2.8. The EU cost convergence scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 143
Table II.2.9. Labour intensity scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 144
Table II.2.10. Sector-specific composite indexation scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 144
Table II.2.11. Non-demographic determinants scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 145
Table II.2.12. AWG reference scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 145
Table II.2.13. AWG risk scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 146
Table II.2.14. TFP risk scenario - projected increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 146
Table II.2.15. Overview of scenario results - increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as pps. of GDP 147
Table II.2.16. Sensitivity tests of the AWG reference scenario on health care - increase in public expenditure on health care over 2019-2070, as pps. of GDP 148
Table II.2.17. Decomposing the impact of drivers on differences in spending growth in health care expenditures between the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Reports, in pps. of GDP 150
Table II.3.1. Overview of different scenarios used to project long-term care spending 163
Table II.3.2. Long-term care reforms with direct budget impact taken into account in the projections 165
Table II.3.3. Projections with country-specific indexation vs standard indexation 167
Table II.3.4. Demographic scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 168
Table II.3.5. Base case scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 169
Table II.3.6. High life expectancy scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 169
Table II.3.7. Healthy ageing scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 170
Table II.3.8. Shift from informal to formal care scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 170
Table II.3.9. Coverage convergence scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 171
Table II.3.10. Cost convergence scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 171
Table II.3.11. Cost and coverage convergence scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 172
Table II.3.12. AWG reference scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 172
Table II.3.13. AWG risk scenario, projected public expenditure on long-term care as % of GDP 173
Table II.3.14. Comparison between public long-term care spending as % of GDP in the 2021 and the 2018 Ageing Reports, in the base year (i.e. 2019) of current projections 174
Table II.3.15. Sensitivity scenarios - change in spending as % of GDP 2019-2070 175
Table II.3.16. Decomposing the impact of drivers on differences in spending growth (2019-2070) between the 2021 and the 2018 Ageing Reports- based on the AWG reference scenario, in pps. of GDP 176
Table II.3.17. Overview of results across scenarios - Change in spending as % over GDP 2019-2070 177
Table II.4.1. Government expenditure on education, baseline scenario of GDP 183
Table II.4.2. Breakdown of total variation in expenditure between 2019 and 2070 - Baseline scenario 184
Table II.4.3. Breakdown of revisions in expenditure-to-GDP ratio (2021 AR round minus 2018 AR round) - Values for the Baseline scenario in 2070 185
Table II.4.4. Baseline and Sensitivity Scenarios (Public Expenditure-to-GDP ratio) - Difference between 2019 and 2070 188
Table II.4.5. Alternative sensitivity scenarios - Difference from the Baseline in 2070 189
Graphs
Graph 1. Overview of the 2021 projection exercise 20
Graph 2. EU - Population by age groups and gender, 2019 and 2070 21
Graph 3. Population and employment developments, EU 24
Graph 4. Total age-related expenditure (2019, peak year and 2070) of GDP 25
Graph 5. Projected change in age-related expenditure (2019-70), by expenditure component, pps. of GDP 26
Graph 6. Total public pension benefit ratio, in %, 2019 and 2070 27
Graph 7. Projected age-related expenditure (2019-70), different scenarios of GDP, EU and EA 28
Graph 8. Total age-related expenditure, different scenarios and by component, 2019 and 2070 of GDP 29
Graph 9. Projected change in age-related expenditure (2019-70), different scenarios, pps. of GDP 29
Graph 10. Projected change in age-related and pension expenditure compared, 2021 and 2018 AR, 2019-70, pps. of GDP 30
Graph I.1.1. Total average fertility rates in the EU and the euro area, 1960-2018 36
Graph I.1.2. Projection of total fertility rates, 2019-2070 (number of births per woman) 37
Graph I.1.3. Life expectancy at birth in the EU, 1960-2018 (in years) 37
Graph I.1.4. Projection of life expectancy at birth, males (in years), 2019-2070 38
Graph I.1.5. Projection of life expectancy at birth, females (in years), 2019-2070 38
Graph I.1.6. Projection of life expectancy at 65, males (in years), 2019-2070 38
Graph I.1.7. Projection of life expectancy at 65, females (in years), 2019-2070 38
Graph I.1.8. Net migration flows, 1960-2018 39
Graph I.1.9. Population by age group and gender, 2019-2070 41
Graph I.1.10. Population of main geographic areas and selected countries as percentage of the world population 45
Graph I.2.1. Impact of pension reforms on participation rates of persons aged 55-64 in 2070 (percentage points) 48
Graph I.2.2. Impact of pension reforms on participation rates of persons aged 65-74 in 2070 (percentage points) 49
Graph I.2.3. Impact of pension reforms on the average exit age from the labour force for persons aged 55-64, 2019-2070 50
Graph I.2.4. Participation rates across ages and genders, 2019-2070 51
Graph I.2.5. Percentage changes in total labour supply of the population aged 20-64 and 20-74, 2019-2070 52
Graph I.2.6. Unemployment rate assumptions for the population aged 20-64, 2019-2070 (% of labour force) 53
Graph I.2.7. Employment rate assumptions for those aged 20-64, 2019-2070 (% of working-age population) 54
Graph I.2.8. Change in total hours worked by persons aged 15-74, 2019-2070 55
Graph I.2.9. Effective economic old-age dependency ratio (inactive population aged 65+/employed persons aged 20-64), 2019-2070 56
Graph I.2.10. Total economic dependency ratio (total inactive population/employed persons aged 20-64), 2019-2070 57
Graph I.2.11. Average annual GDP per capita growth rates, 2019-2070 58
Graph I.2.12. Annual average growth of labour productivity per hour, 2019-2070 58
Graph I.2.13. Annual average growth rate of actual and potential GDP, 2019-2029 59
Graph I.2.14. Drivers of annual average labour productivity growth, 2019-2070 (contributions in pps.) 59
Graph I.2.15. Average annual potential GDP growth rates under the baseline and TFP risk scenarios, 2019-2070 61
Graph I.2.16. Average annual GDP growth rates in the 2021 and 2018 baseline projections, 2019-2045 and 2046-2070 62
Graph I.3.1. Alternative scenarios: deviation from the baseline (pps), annual averages, 2019-2070 67
Graph II.1.1. Difference between statutory retirement age (SRA) and average effective exit age (EEA): 2019 and 2070 74
Graph II.1.2. Average retirement age (old-age and early retirement) and average labour market exit age 74
Graph II.1.3. Increase in the average effective exit age from the labour market versus shift in duration of retirement over the period 2019-2070 77
Graph II.1.4. Change in gross public pension expenditure; 2019-2070 85
Graph II.1.5. Change in gross public pension expenditure prior to 2019, selected countries and years 86
Graph II.1.6. Pension spending in 2019 and 2070: relative position towards the EU average 86
Graph II.1.7. Change in gross pension expenditure for the main general public schemes, 2019-2070 87
Graph II.1.8. Gross public pension expenditure in the EU: time profile 2019-2070 88
Graph II.1.9. Years and increase to peak expenditure 89
Graph II.1.10. Gross public pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio: time profile 2019-2070 (2019=100) 90
Graph II.1.11. Share of public pensioners per age group: EU (% of total public pensioners) 91
Graph II.1.12. Share of public pension expenditure per age group: EU (% of total expenditure) 91
Graph II.1.13. Share of public pensioners per age group: 2070 vs. 2019 (% of total public pensioners) 92
Graph II.1.14. Gross versus net public pension expenditure in 2019 and 2070 93
Graph II.1.15. Private (occupational and individual) pension schemes: expenditure and contributions in 2019 and 2070 94
Graph II.1.16. Contribution to change in gross public pension expenditure; 2019-2070 96
Graph II.1.17. Impact of an increase of life expectancy on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 108
Graph II.1.18. Impact of lower migration on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 109
Graph II.1.19. Impact of higher migration on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 109
Graph II.1.20. Impact of lower fertility on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 110
Graph II.1.21. Impact of higher employment rate among older workers on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 110
Graph II.1.22. Impact of higher TFP growth on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 111
Graph II.1.23. TFP risk scenario: impact on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 111
Graph II.1.24. Impact of linking retirement age to life expectancy on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 112
Graph II.1.25. Unchanged retirement age scenario: impact on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 112
Graph II.1.26. Offset declining benefit ratio scenario: impact on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from the baseline, pps of GDP) 113
Graph II.1.27. Change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070: latest projections vs. 2018 Ageing Report 116
Graph II.1.28. Revision of the dependency ratio and of the change in gross public pension expenditure ratio in 2019-2070 in the 2021 Ageing Report, as compared to the 2018 Ageing Report 119
Graph II.1.29. Revision of the benefit ratio and of the change in gross public pension expenditure ratio in 2019-2070 in the 2021 Ageing Report as compared to the 2018 Ageing Report (pps. of GDP) 120
Graph II.2.1. Age-related expenditure profiles of health care provision (spending per capita as % of GDP per capita) in 2019 123
Graph II.2.2. Schematic presentation of the projection methodology 128
Graph II.2.3. EU COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and deaths 136
Graph II.2.4. Projected increase in public expenditure on health care due to demographic change over 2019-2070, as % of GDP 139
Graph II.2.5. Impact of demography and health status - comparison between scenarios in EU14 and NMS 142
Graph II.2.6. Range of results from different scenarios on health care in the EU 147
Graph II.2.7. Sensitivity tests of the AWG reference scenario on health care in the EU 148
Graph II.2.8. Age-gender expenditure profiles and population changes in the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Reports 151
Graph II.3.1. Total and public long-term care expenditure in the EU, as % GDP 154
Graph II.3.2. Total (public) expenditure on long-term care in the EU, as a share of total (public) current health expenditure 154
Graph II.3.3. Median dependency rates by age-group for EU27, based on EU-SILC 156
Graph II.3.4. Institutional care: Expenditure per recipient of long-term care services in institutional care, as % of GDP per capita 156
Graph II.3.5. Home care: Expenditure per recipient of long-term care services in home care, as % of GDP per capita 157
Graph II.3.6. Cash benefits: Expenditure per recipient of long-term care cash benefits care, as % of GDP per capita 157
Graph II.3.7. Coverage of in-kind care by country (% of the estimated dependent population) 159
Graph II.3.8. Coverage of cash benefits by country (% of the dependent population) 159
Graph II.3.9. Schematic presentation of the projection methodology 162
Graph II.3.10. Demographic scenario, current and projected levels of public expenditure on LTC as % of GDP over 2019-2070 168
Graph II.3.11. AWG reference scenario: Differences in the projected increase in public expenditure on long-term care over 2019-2070 between the 2021 and 2018 Ageing Report, as pps. of GDP 174
Graph II.3.12. Projected expenditure in different LTC scenarios for the EU in % of GDP 177
Graph II.3.13. Projected expenditure in LTC AWG reference and risk scenarios, for the EU in % of GDP 178
Graph II.3.14. Range of results for scenarios with mainly demographic sensitivity analysis (no policy change scenarios). EU in % of GDP 178
Graph II.3.15. Range of results for scenarios with mainly cost and coverage sensitivity analysis (policy change scenarios), EU in % of GDP 179
Graph II.4.1. Students-to-Staff ratio across ISCED levels (Base Year 2019) 181
Graph II.4.2. Average compensation per member of staff as ratio of GDP per worker (Base Year 2019) 182
Graph II.4.3. Structure of public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP (Base Year 2019) 182
Graph II.4.4. Changes in government expenditure by ISCED level between 2019 and 2070 183
Graph II.4.5. Comparison of students and employed between the 2018 AR and the 2021 AR - Values for Baseline scenario in 2070 186
Graph II.4.6. Enrolment rates at base period- ISCED 3-4 & ISCED 5-8 187
Boxes
Box II.1.1. Special pensions across two Ageing Reports 81
Box II.1.2. Breakdown of the pension expenditure-to-GDP ratio 95
Box II.1.3. Adverse macroeconomic scenarios due to COVID-19 related risks 114
Box II.2.1. Public health care expenditure through the last decades 122
Box II.2.2. Income elasticity of health care demand, a short literature survey 126
Box II.2.3. Excess cost growth in health care expenditures, a short literature survey 127
Box II.2.4. Internationally comparable data on total public health care expenditure 129
Box II.2.5. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public spending on health care 137
Box Tables
Box II.1.1. Special pensions across two Ageing Reports 83
Table 1. Special pension coverage in subsequent Ageing Report projections 83
Box II.2.1. Public health care expenditure through the last decades 122
Table 1. Public health care expenditure (incl. long-term nursing care) in EU Member States and Norway, 1970-2018 122
Box II.2.4. Internationally comparable data on total public health care expenditure 130
Table 1. Public expenditure on health care as a % of GDP from available data sources, 2018 130
Box II.2.5. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on public spending on health care 137
Table 1. COVID-19 related public expenditure on health care used in the 2021 Ageing Report projections 137
Box Graphs
Box II.1.1. Special pensions across two Ageing Reports 82
Graph 1. Special pension expenditure - proportions known for the base year of the projections, AR 2021 (base year 2019) vs AR 2018 (base year 2016) 82
Graph 2. Special pension expenditure, outturn and projections, selected countries (% GDP and % public pension expenditure) 84
Box II.1.3. Adverse macroeconomic scenarios due to COVID-19 related risks 115
Graph 1. Lagged recovery scenario: impact on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from baseline, pps of GDP) 115
Graph 2. Structural adverse scenario: impact on the change in gross public pension expenditure in 2019-2070 (deviation from baseline, pps of GDP) 115
Annex Tables
Table II.AI.1. Pension projection reporting sheet: blocks common to all schemes 190
Table II.AI.2. Pension projections reporting sheet: disaggregation of new public pensions expenditure - earnings-related for defined benefit (DB) schemes 192
Table II.AI.3. Pension projection reporting sheet: disaggregation of new public pension expenditure - earnings-related for notional defined contribution (NDC) schemes 193
Table II.AI.4. Pension projection reporting sheet: disaggregation of new public pension expenditure - earnings-related for point systems (PS) 193
Table II.AI.5. Reporting sheet for special pension schemes (voluntary reporting) 194
Table II.AII.1. Pension schemes in EU Member States and projection coverage 195
Table II.AII.2. Key indexation and valorisation parameters of pension system in Europe (old-age pensions) 196
Table II.AIII.1. Overview of the health care data provided for and used in the 2021 Ageing Report 197
Table II.AIII.2. Data sources for the health care sector-specific indexation components 198
Table II.AIV.1. Combinations of data sources for estimating long-term care expenditure 200
Table II.AIV.2. LTC expenditure in base year according to data source used 201
Table II.AIV.3. Availability of input data for long-term care expenditure projections 203
Table II.AIV.4. Dependency rates, based on EU-SILC 205
Table II.AIV.5. Coverage rates (as % of estimated dependent population) in the base case scenario 206
Table II.AV.1. Base enrolment rates by country, age and ISCED level 208
Table II.AV.2. Expenditure-to-GDP ratio in the base period - Breakdown by component 209
Table II.AV.4. Results of the Baseline scenario (Public education expenditure as percentage of GDP) 209
Table II.AV.3. Expenditure-to-GDP ratio in the base period - Breakdown by ISCED levels 209
Table II.AV.5. Results of the High Enrolment Rate scenario (Public education expenditure as percentage of GDP) 209
Table II.AV.6. Total expenditure on education, in levels (million euros) and as % of GDP 210
Statistical Annex Tables
Table III.1.1. Fertility rate 216
Table III.1.2. Life expectancy at birth - Men 216
Table III.1.3. Life expectancy at birth - Women 217
Table III.1.4. Life expectancy at 65 - Men 217
Table III.1.5. Life expectancy at 65 - Women 218
Table III.1.6. Net migration 218
Table III.1.7. Net migration as % of population 219
Table III.1.8. Population 219
Table III.1.9. Young population (0-14) as % of total population 220
Table III.1.10. Prime-age population (25-54) as % of total population 220
Table III.1.11. Working-age population (20-64) as % of total population 221
Table III.1.12. Elderly population (65 and over) as % of total population 221
Table III.1.13. Very elderly population (80 and over) as % of total population 222
Table III.1.14. Very elderly population (80 and over) as % of elderly population 222
Table III.1.15. Very elderly population (80 and over) as % of working-age population 223
Table III.1.16. Potential real GDP (growth rate) 223
Table III.1.17. Employment 15-74 (growth rate) 224
Table III.1.18. Labour input: hours worked (growth rate) 224
Table III.1.19. Labour productivity per hour (growth rate) 225
Table III.1.20. TFP (growth rate) 225
Table III.1.21. Capital deepening (contribution to labour productivity growth) 226
Table III.1.22. Potential real GDP per capita (growth rate) 226
Table III.1.23. Potential real GDP per worker (growth rate) 227
Table III.1.24. Working-age population (20-64) 227
Table III.1.25. Population growth (working-age: 20-64) 228
Table III.1.26. Labour force 15-64 228
Table III.1.27. Labour force 20-64 229
Table III.1.28. Participation rate (20-64) 229
Table III.1.29. Participation rate (20-74) 230
Table III.1.30. Participation rate (20-24) 230
Table III.1.31. Participation rate (25-54) 231
Table III.1.32. Participation rate (55-64) 231
Table III.1.33. Participation rate (65-74) 232
Table III.1.34. Participation rate (20-64) - Women 232
Table III.1.35. Participation rate (20-74) - Women 233
Table III.1.36. Participation rate (20-24) - Women 233
Table III.1.37. Participation rate (25-54) - Women 234
Table III.1.38. Participation rate (55-64) - Women 234
Table III.1.39. Participation rate (65-74) - Women 235
Table III.1.40. Participation rate (20-64) - Men 235
Table III.1.41. Participation rate (20-74) - Men 236
Table III.1.42. Participation rate (20-24) - Men 236
Table III.1.43. Participation rate (25-54) - Men 237
Table III.1.44. Participation rate (55-64) - Men 237
Table III.1.45. Participation rate (65-74) - Men 238
Table III.1.46. Average effective labour market exit age (Total) 238
Table III.1.47. Average effective labour market exit age (Men) 239
Table III.1.48. Average effective labour market exit age (Women) 239
Table III.1.49. Employment rate (15-64) 240
Table III.1.50. Employment rate (20-64) 240
Table III.1.51. Employment rate (20-74) 241
Table III.1.52. Unemployment rate (15-64) 241
Table III.1.53. Unemployment rate (20-64) 242
Table III.1.54. Unemployment rate (20-74) 242
Table III.1.55. Employment (20-64) (in millions) 243
Table III.1.56. Employment (20-74) (in millions) 243
Table III.1.57. Share of young (20-24) in employment (20-74) 244
Table III.1.58. Share of prime-age (25-54) in employment (20-74) 244
Table III.1.59. Share of older workers (55-64) in employment (20-74) 245
Table III.1.60. Share of old (65-74) in employment (20-74) 245
Table III.1.61. Share of older population (55-64) in population (20-64) 246
Table III.1.62. Old-age dependency ratio (65+ / 20-64) 246
Table III.1.63. Total dependency ratio ((0-19 & 65+) / (20-64)) 247
Table III.1.64. Total economic dependency ratio (total inactive population / employment) 247
Table III.1.65. Economic old-age dependency ratio (inactive population 65+ / employment 20-64) 248
Table III.1.66. Economic old-age dependency ratio (inactive population 65+ / employment 20-74) 248
Table III.1.67. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP 249
Table III.1.68. Old-age and early pensions, gross as % of GDP 249
Table III.1.69. Disability pensions, gross as % of GDP 250
Table III.1.70. Survivors' pensions, gross as % of GDP 250
Table III.1.71. Other pensions, gross as % of GDP 251
Table III.1.72. Earnings-related pensions (old-age and early pensions), gross as % of GDP 251
Table III.1.73. Private occupational pensions, gross as % of GDP 252
Table III.1.74. Private individual pensions, gross as % of GDP 252
Table III.1.75. New pensions (old-age and early pensions), gross as % of GDP 253
Table III.1.76. Public pensions, net as % of GDP 253
Table III.1.77. Public pensions, contributions as % of GDP 254
Table III.1.78. Public pensions, net/gross 254
Table III.1.79. Pensioners (public, in thousands) 255
Table III.1.80. Public pensioners aged 65+ 255
Table III.1.81. Share of public pensioners below age 65 as % of all public pensioners 256
Table III.1.82. Benefit ratio (total public pensions) 256
Table III.1.83. Gross replacement rate at retirement (old-age earnings-related public pensions) 257
Table III.1.84. Average accrual rate (new earnings-related public pensions) 257
Table III.1.85. Average contributory period (new earnings-related public pensions, years) 258
Table III.1.86. Contributors (public pensions, in thousands) 258
Table III.1.87. Support ratio (contributors/100 pensioners, public pensions) 259
Table III.1.88. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - High life expectancy (+2 years) 259
Table III.1.89. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Lower fertility (-20%) 260
Table III.1.90. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Higher TFP growth (+0.2 pps) 260
Table III.1.91. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - TFP risk scenario (-0.2 pps) 261
Table III.1.92. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Higher employment rate of older workers (+10 pps) 261
Table III.1.93. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Higher migration (+33%) 262
Table III.1.94. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Lower migration (-33%) 262
Table III.1.95. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Policy scenario linking retirement age to increases in life expectancy 263
Table III.1.96. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Lagged recovery 263
Table III.1.97. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Adverse structural 264
Table III.1.98. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Offset declining pension benefit ratio 264
Table III.1.99. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - Unchanged retirement age 265
Table III.1.100. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 (Baseline scenario) 265
Table III.1.101. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 due to dependency ratio (Baseline scenario) 266
Table III.1.102. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 due to coverage ratio (Baseline scenario) 266
Table III.1.103. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 due to benefit ratio (Baseline scenario) 267
Table III.1.104. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 due to labour market ratio (Baseline scenario) 267
Table III.1.105. Public pensions, gross as % of GDP - pps change from 2019 due to interaction effect (residual) (Baseline scenario) 268
Table III.1.106. Health care spending as % of GDP - AWG reference scenario 268
Table III.1.107. Health care spending as % of GDP - AWG risk scenario 269
Table III.1.108. Health care spending as % of GDP - TFP risk scenario 269
Table III.1.109. Health care spending as % of GDP - Demographic scenario 270
Table III.1.110. Health care spending as % of GDP - High life expectancy scenario 270
Table III.1.111. Health care spending as % of GDP - Healthy ageing scenario 271
Table III.1.112. Health care spending as % of GDP - Death-related cost scenario 271
Table III.1.113. Health care spending as % of GDP - Income elasticity scenario 272
Table III.1.114. Health care spending as % of GDP - EU cost convergence scenario 272
Table III.1.115. Health care spending as % of GDP - Labour intensity scenario 273
Table III.1.116. Health care spending as % of GDP - Sector-specific composite indexation scenario 273
Table III.1.117. Health care spending as % of GDP - Non-demographic determinants scenario 274
Table III.1.118. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - AWG reference scenario 274
Table III.1.119. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - AWG risk scenario 275
Table III.1.120. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - TFP risk scenario 275
Table III.1.121. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Demographic scenario 276
Table III.1.122. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Base case scenario 276
Table III.1.123. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - High life expectancy scenario 277
Table III.1.124. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Healthy ageing scenario 277
Table III.1.125. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Shift to formal care scenario 278
Table III.1.126. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Coverage convergence scenario 278
Table III.1.127. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Cost convergence scenario 279
Table III.1.128. Long-term care spending as % of GDP - Cost and coverage convergence scenario 279
Table III.1.129. Number of dependent people - AWG reference scenario 280
Table III.1.130. Number of dependent people receiving institutional care - AWG reference scenario 280
Table III.1.131. Number of dependent people receiving home care - AWG reference scenario 281
Table III.1.132. Number of dependent people receiving cash benefits - AWG reference scenario 281
Table III.1.133. Education spending as % of GDP - Baseline 282
Table III.1.134. Number of students 282
Table III.1.135. Number of students as % of population 5-24 283
Table III.1.136. Education spending as % of GDP - High enrolment rate scenario 283
Table III.1.137. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - AWG reference scenario 284
Table III.1.138. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - AWG risk scenario 284
Table III.1.139. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - TFP risk scenario 285
Table III.1.140. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - High life expectancy (+2 years) 285
Table III.1.141. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Lower fertility (-20%) 286
Table III.1.142. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Higher TFP growth (+0.2 pps) 286
Table III.1.143. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Higher employment rate of older workers (+10 pps) 287
Table III.1.144. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Higher migration (+33%) 287
Table III.1.145. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Lower migration (-33%) 288
Table III.1.146. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Policy scenario linking retirement age to increases in life expectancy 288
Table III.1.147. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Lagged recovery 289
Table III.1.148. Total cost of ageing as % of GDP - Adverse structural 289
