목차
Title page
Contents
Acknowledgments 2
Chapter 1. Introduction 10
WHY STUDY AGING IN ASIA? 10
SCOPE AND DATA SOURCES 10
OUTLINE AND CONTENT 11
SPECIAL NOTES 11
REFERENCES 13
Chapter 2. The Demography of an Aging Asia 14
NUMERICAL AND PROPORTIONATE GROWTH OF ASIA'S OLDER POPULATION 14
The number of older Asians will nearly triple over the next 4 decades 14
Even more dramatic than the rising numbers of older Asians will be the increased proportions of people aged 65 and older 14
DRIVERS OF POPULATION AGING-LOW FERTILITY AND LOW MORTALITY 16
Asia has experienced a rapid demographic transition from higher to lower birth and death rates 16
Birth rates-just how low can they go? 20
Lower birth rates result in fewer children today and fewer mothers tomorrow 25
Lower mortality results in more people living to older ages, especially women 25
POPULATION AGE STRUCTURE AND OLD-AGE DEPENDENCY RATIOS 29
Median age in Eastern Asia is projected to rise well past the typical childbearing ages 29
The ratio of the older population to those at working ages will continue to increase 29
REFERENCES 33
Chapter 3. Work, Income, and Retirement 35
LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION AND OTHER INCOME SOURCES 35
Labor force participation differs widely by region, between men and women, and across older age groups 35
The lowest labor force participation rates for women are concentrated in Western Asia and Southern Asia, with considerable diversity within the same regions 36
Education is positively associated with labor force participation, but in some high-income Asian countries, women with higher-education work far less than expected 39
As societies develop, the main source of income for older Asians typically shifts from own income and dependence on children to other sources of support 42
OLD-AGE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEMS IN ASIA 43
Although old-age security systems exist throughout Asia, their provisions and coverage vary widely based on each country's age structure, development,... 44
Statutory pension ages tend to rise as longevity improves, with pensions funded by payroll tax contributions from both employees and employers 47
COVERAGE AND WAGE REPLACEMENT OF OLD-AGE SOCIAL SECURITY PENSIONS 48
The proportion of the older people covered by mandatory old-age pensions varies widely throughout Asia and reflects urbanization, occupational patterns,... 48
How well do pensions replace earnings? Higher coveragevs. lower replacement rates 49
Most Asian countries have progressive net replacement rates across income levels, and sex differences tend to disappear in higher income countries 50
REFERENCES 52
Chapter 4. Health and Health Care 55
HEALTHY LIFE EXPECTANCY AT AGE 60 IN ASIA 55
The extra years of life gained were not necessarily lived in good health 55
Most Asian countries had gains in HALE60, with considerable differences based on country wealth 56
NONCOMMUNICABLE DISEASES AND THE BURDEN OF MULTIMORBIDITY 57
Total deaths for older Asians attributable to noncommunicable diseases have risen in last 2 decades. 57
Median age of onset of NCDs has been getting younger in some Asian countries 61
Some Asian countries are showing positive shifts in risk factor behaviors 62
Concurrent infectious and noninfectious diseases pose challenges of multimorbidity 62
AGE-RELATED DISABILITY IN ASIA 64
Increases in NCDs may cause considerable cognitive and physical impairments and disability 64
Living alone may lead to social isolation and is associated with multimorbidity among older Asians 71
Adult children who live with their parents might serve as a potential pool of caregivers for older people needing assistance 71
HEALTH CARE SYSTEMS 72
Health systems readiness differs widely across Asia 72
Overall gains have been achieved in health care access and quality in the past 3 decades but gaps among Asian countries exist. 73
Lower income countries face more challenges financing health systems and care 74
REFERENCES 76
Chapter 5. Summary And Discussion 84
HIGHLIGHTS 84
The Demography of an Aging Asia 84
Work, Income, and Retirement 84
Health and Health Care 84
SUMMARY 84
DISCUSSION 85
REFERENCES 87
Appendix A. List of Subregions and Countries of Asia Used in This Report 88
Appendix B. Detailed Tables 89
Table 2-1. Ten Asian Countries With Largest Populations Aged 65 and Older in World Ranking: 2020 and Projected 2060 17
Table 2-2. Total Fertility Rates for Asian Subregions and Countries: 2020 and Projected 2060 22
Table 2-3. Proximate or Direct Determinants of Fertility in Jordan and Egypt: 2000 to 2017/2018 24
Table 2-4. Ten Highest and Lowest Life Expectancy at Age 60 for Asian Countries: 2015-2020 25
Table 2-5. Life Expectancy at Age 60 for Asian Subregions by Sex: 1950-1955, 2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2020 30
Table 2-6. Median Age for Asian Subregions by Sex: 2020 and Projected 2060 30
Table 3-1. Ten Highest and Lowest Labor Force Participation Rates for Asian Countries by Sex at Ages 60-64: 2020 or Latest Year Available 37
Table 3-2. Labor Force Participation for Adults Aged 65 and Older in Bangladesh and South Korea by Sex: 2020 37
Table 3-3. Population Aged 60 and Older by Employment Status and Age: Malaysia 39
Table 3-4. Distribution of Workers Aged 60 and Older by Industry and Sex: Malaysia 39
Table 3-5. Educational Attainment for Older Population in Selected Asian Countries: 2017-2020 42
Table 3-6. Knowledge About and Coverage of Social Safety Net Programs Among Older People in Bangladesh: 2019 45
Table 3-7. Coverage, Net Replacement, and Inequality in Old Age Social Security Pensions Systems in Selected Asian Countries: 2018 49
Table 3-8. Net Pension Replacement Rates of Average Earnings for Selected Asian and OECD Countries by Sex and World Region: 2018 51
Table 4-1. Asian Countries With Most and Least Improvement in Life Expectancy at Age 60: 2000 to 2019 56
Table 4-2. Food Preference by Centenarians in South Korea by Sex: 2015 59
Table 4-3. Leading Noncommunicable Diseases in Population Aged 55 and Older for Selected Asian Countries: 2019 60
Table 4-4. Older Population With a Disability in Selected Asian Countries by Type and Sex 69
Table 4-5. Estimated Number of People With Dementia by Region: 2020 to 2050 70
Table 4-6. Living Arrangements for Older Adults in Selected Asian Countries 72
Table 4-7. Health Systems Quality Index for Selected Asian Countries: 2018 74
Figure 2-1. Population Aged 65 and Older by World Region: 2020 and Projected 2060 15
Figure 2-2. Population Aged 65 and Over by Region: 2020 Projected to 2060 16
Figure 2-3. Total Population and Those Aged 65 and Older for Asia by Subregion: 2020 and Projected 2060 17
Figure 2-4. Population Aged 65 and Older for Asian Countries: 2020 and Projected 2060 18
Figure 2-5. Percentage of Total Population Aged 65 and Older for Asian Countries: 2020 and Projected 2060 19
Figure 2-6. Mortality Rates for Children Under Age 5 by Asian Subregions: 2020 Projected to 2060 20
Figure 2-7. Demographic Transition in Eastern Asia and Southern Asia: 1950-1955 to 2020-2025 21
Figure 2-8. Total Fertility Rates for Selected Asian Countries: 2020 Projected to 2060 21
Figure 2-9. Total Fertility Rates for Jordan and Egypt: 2000 to 2015 23
Figure 2-10. Percentage of Population Aged 65 and Older in Jordan and Egypt: 2020 to Projected 2050 24
Figure 2-11. Population by Age and Sex for Selected Asian Countries: 2020 and Projected 2060 26
Figure 2-12. Population by Age and Sex for GCC and Other Western Asian Countries: 2020 28
Figure 2-13. Old-Age Dependency Ratios for World Regions and Asian Subregions: 2020 and Projected 2060 31
Figure 3-1. Labor Force Participation Rates (LFPR) by Age and Sex for International Labour Organization Asian Regions: 2019 35
Figure 3-2. Retirement Rate for Population Aged 55 and Older in China by Urban/Rural Residence and Age: 2018 40
Figure 3-3. Population Aged 55 and Older Not Yet Retired Who Expect Never to Retire in China and the United States by Age, Sex, and Urban/Rural... 41
Figure 3-4. Main Sources of Income for Older Population in Selected Asian Countries 42
Figure 3-5. Percent Distribution of Source of Income of the Older Population in Vietnam by Age and Urban/Rural Residence: 2019 43
Figure 3-6. Share of People Aged 65 and Older and Public Expenditures on Social Protection for Those at or Above Mandated Pensionable Ages... 44
Figure 3-7. Number of Asian Countries With Statutory Public Pensions by Pensionable Age 44
Figure 3-8. Main Reasons for Dissatisfaction of Social Safety Net Programs by Recipients Aged 60 and Older in Bangladesh by Urban/Rural... 46
Figure 3-9. Percent Distribution of Older Population and Total Population by Urban/Rural Residence for Selected Asian Countries 48
Figure 3-10. Net Replacement Rates of Mandatory Pensions vs. Earnings for Selected Asian Countries 50
Figure 3-11. Labor Force Covered and Net Replacement Rate for Mandatory Public Pension Systems in Selected Asian Countries: 2018 50
Figure 4-1. Countries With Highest Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at Age 60: 2019 55
Figure 4-2. Female-Male Di-erences in Life Expectancy and Healthy Life Expectancy at Age 60 for Selected Asian Countries: 2019 57
Figure 4-3. Reasons for Longevity Reported by Centenarians in South Korea by Sex: 2015 58
Figure 4-4. Health Behavior of Centenarians in South Korea 59
Figure 4-5. Prevalence of Hypertension and Diabetes Among Older Population in Selected Asian Countries 61
Figure 4-6. Health Risk Factors for Older Population in Malaysia and South Korea by Sex 62
Figure 4-7. Nutritional Status Scores for People Aged 65 and Older in South Korea by Age: 2014 and 2020 63
Figure 4-8. Age and Sex Distribution for HIV Population by ART Status in Thailand: Projected 2050 65
Figure 4-9. Sex Ratio of HIV Population Aged 65 and Older in Cambodia and Nepal: 2020 Projected to 2050 66
Figure 4-10. Percent Distribution of COVID-19 Deaths by Age for Philippines and Japan as of July 2021 67
Figure 4-11. Population Aged 65 and Older With a Disability in Jordan by Type and Age: 2017 70
Figure 4-12. Living Arrangements for Older Populations in South Korea and Vietnam by Urban/Rural Residence 73
Figure 5-1. Population by Age and Sex for China, India, and United States: 2020 and Projected 2060 86
Boxes
Box 1-1. International Database, U.S. Census Bureau 12
Box 2-1. Fertility Stalling and Aging-The Case of Jordan and Egypt 23
Box 2-2. The Many Shapes of Age and Sex Structure in Western Asia 27
Box 3-1. Active and Productive Aging: Older Workers in Malaysia 38
Box 3-2. Retirement Expectations by Older Populations in China and United States-Findings From the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal... 40
Box 3-3. Perceptions of Older People Regarding Social Safety Net Programs in Bangladesh 45
Box 4-1. Reasons for Longevity-The Case of South Korea's Centenarians 58
Box 4-2. Nutritional Status of Older People in South Korea 63
Box 4-3. Gender Variations in HIV Population Aging in Asia 65
Box 4-4. COVID-19 and Older Asians 67
Table B-1. Total Population and Percentage Aged 65 and Older for Asian Countries: 2020 and Projected 2060 90
Table B-2. Total Fertility Rate, Mortality Rate Under Age 5, and Life Expectancy at Birth for Asian Countries by Sex: 2020 91
Table B-3. Labor Force Participation for Population Aged 60-64 and 65 and Older for Asian Countries by Sex: 2020 or Latest Year Available 92
Table B-4. Pension Age, Contribution Rates, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Per Capita for Asian Countries: 2018 93
Table B-5. Life Expectancy (LE) and Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at Birth and at Age 60 for Asian Countries: 2000, 2010, and 2019 94
Table B-6. Burden of Selected Noncommunicable Diseases in Population Aged 55 and Older by Sex and Type: 2019 100
