Title page

Contents

Preface 4

Overview of methodology 5

Key findings 6

1. Global Risks 2024: At a turning point 12

1.1. The world in 2024 12

1.2. The path to 2026 14

1.3. False information 18

1.4. Rise in conflict 22

1.5. Economic uncertainty 27

1.6. Looking ahead 32

Endnotes 33

2. Global Risks 2034: Over the limit 37

2.1. The world in 2034 37

2.2. Structural forces 40

2.3. A 3°C world 42

2.4. AI in charge 50

2.5. The end of development? 57

2.6. Crime wave 68

2.7. Preparing for the decade ahead 76

Endnotes 77

3. Responding to global risks 85

3.1. Localized strategies 86

3.2. Breakthrough endeavors 87

3.3. Collective actions 89

3.4. Cross-border coordination 90

3.5. Conclusion 92

Endnotes 94

Appendix A. Definitions and Global Risks List 95

Appendix B. Global Risk Perception Survey 2023-2024 99

Appendix C. Executive Opinion Survey: National Risk Perceptions 102

Appendix D. Risk governance 112

Partner Institutes 115

Acknowledgements 121

FIGURE 1.1. Short and long-term global outlook 12

FIGURE 1.2. Current risk landscape 13

FIGURE 1.3. Global risks ranked by severity over the short term (2 years) 14

FIGURE 1.4. Annual change in global risk perceptions over the short term (2 years) 15

FIGURE 1.5. Severity by stakeholder over the short term (2 years) 15

FIGURE 1.6. Risk perceptions by age over the short term (2 years) 16

FIGURE 1.7. Global risks landscape: an interconnections map 17

FIGURE 1.8. Severity score: Misinformation and disinformation 18

FIGURE 1.9. National risk perceptions in the context of upcoming elections 19

FIGURE 1.10. Risk interconnections 21

FIGURE 1.11. Severity score: Interstate armed conflict 22

FIGURE 1.12. Incidence and impact of state-based armed conflict, 2007-2022 23

FIGURE 1.13. Geography of violence 25

FIGURE 1.14. Severity score: Economic downturn 27

FIGURE 1.15. Google search for 'Recession' 27

FIGURE 1.16. National risk perceptions: Economic downturn 28

FIGURE 1.17. Inflation 29

FIGURE 1.18. Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) 29

FIGURE 1.19. Corporate debt defaults (United States, 2006-2023) 31

FIGURE 2.1. Relative severity of risks over a 2 and 10-year period 37

FIGURE 2.2. Global risks ranked by severity over the long term (10 years) 38

FIGURE 2.3. Severity by stakeholder over the long term (10 years) 39

FIGURE 2.4. Severity score: Critical change to Earth systems 42

FIGURE 2.5. Examples of global and regional tipping points 43

FIGURE 2.6. Climate tipping points 44

FIGURE 2.7. Adaptation readiness 45

FIGURE 2.8. Adaptation finance gap 46

FIGURE 2.9. Indicative sea level rise, selected countries 47

FIGURE 2.10. Risk governance: A 3°C world 49

FIGURE 2.11. Severity score: Adverse outcomes of AI technologies 50

FIGURE 2.12. Technological power 51

FIGURE 2.13. Indicative value chain of generative AI technologies 52

FIGURE 2.14. National security as a driver of industrial policy 52

FIGURE 2.15. Risk governance: AI in charge 56

FIGURE 2.16. Severity score: Lack of economic opportunity 57

FIGURE 2.17. Human Development Index scores, selected economies, 1990-2020 58

FIGURE 2.18. Human development 59

FIGURE 2.19. Top 10 jobs, 2023-2027 60

FIGURE 2.20. National risk perceptions: Employment 61

FIGURE 2.21. Funding gaps in the Least Developed Countries 62

FIGURE 2.22. Service exports, selected economies and economy groups 63

FIGURE 2.23. Risk governance: End of development? 67

FIGURE 2.24. Severity score: Illicit economic activity 68

FIGURE 2.25. Criminal markets and actors, 2021 vs 2023 69

FIGURE 2.26. Organized crime 70

FIGURE 2.27. National risk perceptions, by region: Cybercrime and cyber insecurity 71

FIGURE 2.28. National risk perceptions, by region: Illicit economic activity 72

FIGURE 2.29. Crime and state fragility 74

FIGURE 2.30. Risk governance: Crime wave 75

FIGURE 2.31. Global political outlook 76

FIGURE 3.1. Top global risks addressed by National and local regulations 86

FIGURE 3.2. Top global risks addressed by Research and development 88

FIGURE 3.3. Top global risks adressed by Corporate strategies 89

FIGURE 3.4. Top global risks addressed by Global treaties and agreements 91

FIGURE 3.5. Risk governance 93

Boxes

BOX 2.1. Structural forces 40

BOX 2.2. The next global shock? 44

BOX 2.3. The next global shock? 48

BOX 2.4. The next global shock? 49

BOX 2.5. The next global shock? 53

BOX 2.6. The next global shock? 54

BOX 2.7. The next global shock? 55

BOX 2.8. The next global shock? 64

BOX 2.9. The next global shock? 65

BOX 2.10. The next global shock? 73

BOX 2.11. The next global shock? 75

TABLE A.1. Definitions of global risks 95

TABLE B.1. Survey sample composition 101

TABLE C.1. National risk list 102

TABLE C.2. Top five risks identified by the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) 103

FIGURE D.1. Top global risks addressed by Financial instruments 112

FIGURE D.2. Top global risks addressed by Minilateral treaties and agreements 113

FIGURE D.3. Top global risks addressed by Development assistance 113

FIGURE D.4. Top global risks addressed by Public awareness and education 114

FIGURE D.5. Top global risks addressed by Multi-stakeholder engagement 114