국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Abstract 4

Introduction 7

Progress towards net zero 7

The EU's climate mitigation policies 9

Towards more efficient mitigation policies 18

Free allowances reduce the effectiveness of carbon pricing 19

Strengthen carbon markets for sectors not covered by the ETS 21

Effective carbon rates vary across countries and sectors 21

An internal carbon price can improve efficiency of public spending 22

Making financial markets work for the green transition 23

Targeting mitigation policies to sectors 27

Ramping up mitigation in agriculture 27

Accelerating the energy transition 35

Bringing down emissions in transportation 44

Limiting reallocation costs from the green transition 48

References 54

Table 0.1. Economic effects of EU 'Fit for 55' policies in 2030 14

Table 0.2. Economic effects of EU 'Fit for 55' policies in 2030, by country 15

Table 0.3. Recommendations 53

Figure 0.1. Reductions in greenhouse gas emissions need to accelerate 8

Figure 0.2. Energy, transport, and agriculture account for a large share of emissions 9

Figure 0.3. The ETS price has risen recently 11

Figure 0.4. Biomass accounts for a large share of renewable energy supply 16

Figure 0.5. Fossil fuels benefit from a favourable tax treatment 18

Figure 0.6. The effective carbon price is relatively high 20

Figure 0.7. Carbon pricing differs considerably across sectors and countries 22

Figure 0.8. Capital markets are less developed than in peer economies 26

Figure 0.9. Venture capital remains relatively low 27

Figure 0.10. Agricultural emission reductions have stalled 28

Figure 0.11. The effective carbon price in agriculture is relatively low 30

Figure 0.12. Agricultural income support remains high despite a growing trade surplus 33

Figure 0.13. Energy consumption remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels 35

Figure 0.14. Government support for renewables remains high and mostly benefits solar and wind 36

Figure 0.15. Lengthy permitting processes slow down the deployment of renewables 38

Figure 0.16. Retail prices for electricity differ across EU countries 41

Figure 0.17. Cars are the main source of emissions in the transport sector 45

Figure 0.18. The carbon-intensity of electric cars depends on the electricity mix of the country of production 47

Figure 0.19. Vacancies and wage premia in green jobs are high 48

Figure 0.20. Labour market churn is low on average 50

Figure 0.21. Occupational entry barriers remain high 51

Boxes

Box 0.1. The EU's new climate mitigation policies 9

Box 0.2. A Computable General Equilibrium analysis of the economic effects of the EU's 'Fit for 55' policies 13

Box 0.3. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism 20

Box 0.4. Green budgeting across the OECD 24

Box 0.5. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy and climate action 29

Box 0.6. New Zealand's approach to carbon pricing in agriculture 31

Box 0.7. The new Common Agricultural Policy 2023-27 34

Box 0.8. US Inflation Reduction Act 37

Box 0.9. The European Commission's proposal for a reform of the EU electricity market 40

Box 0.10. Policy support for carbon capture and storage 43

Box 0.11. EU Emission Trading System for buildings and road transport (ETS 2) 46

Box 0.12. Just Transition Mechanism and Social Climate Fund 52