Title page

Contents

Acknowledgements 3

Foreword: A Vexing Year Ahead for China 5

About the Authors 7

China's Economy Will Continue to Struggle 8

Xi's Prioritization of Security Will Continue to Weigh on Growth 10

Eroding Trust Could Further Undermine Conf idence in Governance and Development 12

Economic Slowdown Will Drive Public Discontent 14

Purges in the Provinces as Local Liabilities Rise 16

Xi Will Adopt a More Oracular Leadership Style 18

China Will Accelerate Climate Resilience as a Security Priority 20

China Will Act to Reestablish its International Climate Leadership 22

China Will Accelerate Its Pivot to the Global South 24

Two Elections Will Challenge Chinese Foreign Policy 26