국가전략정보포털

Title page

Contents

Abstract 3

Acknowledgments 3

Summary 6

Forces Shaping World Agriculture 8

Agricultural Outputs: Changing Location and Composition 19

Production Shifted to the Global South 19

Commodity Composition of World Agriculture Gradually Changed 23

Animal Output Composition Shows Declining Value Share for Ruminants 24

Agricultural Input Use 25

Agricultural Land Expanded in the Global South and Contracted in the Global North 25

Labor Employed in Agriculture Peaked While Agricultural Capital Stock Grew 30

Intermediate Inputs Often Embody New Technologies 32

Agricultural Productivity 37

Land and Labor Productivity Increased Across a Broad Range of Factor Endowments 38

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Accounted for an Increasing Share of Agricultural Growth 40

Where Has Agricultural Growth Been Slowing? 41

Policy Drivers of Productivity Growth in Agriculture: Investment in Research and Extension 43

Agriculture and the Environment 47

Summing Up: Implications for Sustainable Agricultural Growth 55

References 57

Table 1. Composition of world agricultural output, 1961-65 and 2016-20 24

Table 2. Number and average size of farm holdings by region, circa 2010 29

Table 3. Public agricultural research and development (R&D) spending by world region, 1991-2016 44

Table 4. Public agricultural extension staff employed in selected countries and by region 46

Table 5. Agricultural resource-use intensities by region, 2016-20 annual average 54

Figure 1. World agricultural output, price, cropland, and population since 1900 9

Figure 2. Major developments affecting world agriculture since 1961 12

Figure 3. World agricultural output in the Global North and Global South, 1961-2020 20

Figure 4. World agricultural output by region, 1961-65 and 2016-20 21

Figure 5. Agricultural output per capita worldwide and by region, 1961-65 and 2016-20 23

Figure 6. Diversification in global animal and aquaculture production, 1961-65 and 2016-20 25

Figure 7. World and regional agricultural land area in 1961 and 2020 26

Figure 8. Actual and quality-adjusted agricultural land area in 2020 28

Figure 9. World agricultural employment and agriculture's share of total employment, 1961-2020 30

Figure 10. World agricultural labor and capital stock, 1961-2020 31

Figure 11. Capital-labor substitution in agriculture 32

Figure 12. Quantity and composition of agricultural fertilizers applied worldwide, 1961-2020 33

Figure 13. Global quantity and composition of animal feed concentrates, 1961-2020 34

Figure 14. Quantity of agricultural pesticide use by region, 1990-2020 35

Figure 15. Diffusion of modern varieties of food crops in the Global South, 1961-2020 36

Figure 16. Diffusion of genetically modified (GM) crop varieties worldwide, 1995-2019 37

Figure 17. Trends in labor productivity, land productivity, and land-labor ratios by region, 1961-2020 39

Figure 18. Sources of growth in world agricultural output by decade, 1961-2020 41

Figure 19. Sources of growth in agricultural output in the Global North and Global South by decade, 1961-2020 42

Figure 20. Average annual growth in agricultural total factor productivity by country, 1991-2020 43

Figure 21. Crop output, cropland and irrigation water use, and resource-use intensity, 1961-2020 48

Figure 22. Agricultural nutrient loadings and nutrient-loading intensities, 1961-2020 50

Figure 23. Agricultural GHG emissions and emissions intensities, 1990-2020 52

Boxes

International Comparisons of Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Global Agriculture 10

Measuring Global Agricultural Production and Resource Use 17

Box Figures

Figure B1. Agricultural growth comes from increasing the use of land and other resources and from raising the productivity of those resources 11

Figure B2. Global regions in the International Agricultural Productivity data product 19