Title page

Contents

Abstract 4

Résumé 5

Acknowledgements 6

Acronyms and definitions 9

Executive summary 10

1. Introduction 11

2. The UNFCCC Stocktake and Submission of GHG Emission Targets 13

3. Methodology for Determining GHG Emission Targets for 2030 15

Approach 15

Estimating emission percentage reduction from a base value target 17

Estimating emission percentage reduction from a BAU scenario targets 18

Estimating emission intensity percentage reduction targets 18

Estimating annual emission abatement targets 18

Classifying targets 18

4. Results 20

5. GHG Emission Trends and Target (GETT) Indicators 27

Proposed Indicators 27

Interpretation of Proposed Indicators 33

6. Next Steps 34

Annex A. Methodology 35

References 40

Table 3.1. IPAC Country 2030 Emission Targets 16

Table 3.2. Estimated 2030 Physical Emission Targets and Target index Key 19

Table 4.1. Estimated 2030 emission targets for non-EU countries 20

Table 5.1. Country Examples of % Estimated Cumulative Emission Gap 30

Figure 4.1. Emissions and targets for non-EU countries grouped according to target index 22

Figure 5.1. Examples of Annual Difference from Target 28

Figure 5.2. Examples of Annual % Difference from Target 28

Figure 5.3. Examples of Estimated Cumulative Emission Gap 29

Figure 5.4. Examples of Annual Difference of Emissions Intensity from Target 31

Figure 5.5. Country Examples of Annual % Difference of Emissions per unit of GDP from Target 31

Figure 5.6. Country Examples of Annual Difference of Emissions per Capita from Target 32

Figure 5.7. Country Examples of Annual % Difference of Emissions per Capita from Target 33

Annex Tables

Table A.1. Data Sources 35

Table A.2. Specific Observations of 2030 NDC Target Data per Country 36

Table A.3. General Equations of Target Transformations 38

Table A.4. Specific Observations of Estimated 2030 Target Calculations per Country 39